37-39 E Willow St · Elizabethtown, PA 17022

$575,000

24 bd · 8.0 ba · 3,084 sqft · MultiFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 1900 Fair condition 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 4 unit/2-1 bedrm & 2-2 bedrm units. Good condition. Off street parking. Washer & dryer for each unit. Great #'s 9-10% cap. see docs. Tenants pay electric heat.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property condition listed as good
• Financial info: Total of 4 units; Total actual rent reported; Fee simple ownership; Insurance expense listed

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200+ amp electric service; Cable TV available
• Home design: Four-unit multifamily property; Estimated year built
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Shingle siding; Composite, shingle, and metal roofing; Above-grade other structures
• Exterior features: Road frontage of 67 feet; No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two 1-bedroom units; Two 2-bedroom units
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Window air conditioning units; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Full basement; Estimated living area
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2×1bd/1.0ba + 2×2bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $575k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $147 ($2k/yr) — positive. Per door: $37/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $530k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $530k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.1% in Elizabethtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#201 in PA, #1,759 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Elizabethtown Area SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #123 of 539 in PA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Elizabethtown Area Shs (math 67% / reading 24%, grade D-, #183 of 437 statewide, top 43%, 1,249 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,300/mo this rent would consume 73% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 1404% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 174% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $195k; list at $575k implies a 195% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $530,000 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-64,268
• Equity at exit: $85,734

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $42,310
• Equity at exit: $49,715

Cash invested: $161,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17022

• Home prices YoY: -29.0%
• Rents YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 37.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,015
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$719 /mo · $8,625/yr
• Insurance: −$240
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,113
• Net cashflow: $147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,114

Max offer price $575,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $544	-5% $346	+0% $147	+5% $-52	+10% $-251
Rent	-10% $-272	-5% $-63	+0% $147	+5% $356	+10% $566
Rate	-1.0pp $436	-0.5pp $293	base $147	+0.5pp $-2	+1.0pp $-154

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	1	1	$2,528
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,772
Total (4 units)			$5,300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $143,750
• Closing costs: $17,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $575,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $575,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $575,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $575,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $575,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $575,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $575,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $575,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $575,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $575,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,209
• − Property taxes: −$8,625
• − Insurance: −$3,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,088
• − Management: −$5,088
• − Depreciation: −$16,727
• Taxable loss: −$7,810
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,874
• After-tax cash flow: $3,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This multi-family property requires significant repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, exterior painting, and landscaping. Upgrading the home's systems and improving the curb appeal can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant wear and tear visible.
• Major siding — Peeling and chipping paint.
• Major flooring — Worn and may need replacement.
• Major interior walls — Paint peeling and signs of wear.
• Major windows — Old and may need replacement.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No specific details, but likely outdated and in need of inspection.
• Major landscaping — Sparse and in need of improvement to enhance curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both landscaping and planting — A well-maintained landscape can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters.
• Both replacing worn flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both replacing old windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and the home's overall appearance.
• Both replacing the roof — A new roof can significantly increase the home's value and reduce future maintenance costs.
• Both upgrading HVAC and mechanical systems — Modern, energy-efficient systems can improve comfort and reduce utility costs, attracting more potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant wear and tear visible.	Major	$15,000–50,000
siding · Peeling and chipping paint.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn and may need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Paint peeling and signs of wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · Old and may need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No specific details, but likely outdated and in need of inspection.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Sparse and in need of improvement to enhance curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both landscaping and planting — A well-maintained landscape can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both replacing worn flooring — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both replacing old windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and the home's overall appearance. ↑
• Both replacing the roof — A new roof can significantly increase the home's value and reduce future maintenance costs. ↑
• Both upgrading HVAC and mechanical systems — Modern, energy-efficient systems can improve comfort and reduce utility costs, attracting more potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elizabethtown Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4209120
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $59,380
• Composite: 46.94/100
• National rank: #2361
• State rank: #123 of 539 in PA

Livability — Elizabethtown

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #201
• US rank: #1759

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elizabethtown, PA
• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 31,908
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 31,908
• Household income: $86,767
• Rent vs Own: 31.8% rent · 68.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1404.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.73%
• Current HPI: 266.3184
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.52%
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+283.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Coming Soon $575,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-11-30 Sold (MLS) $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-10-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-05-02 Listed $209,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-06-25 Sold (MLS) $155,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-05-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-05-13 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS