1673 Red River Rd

Fox, AR 72051

$149,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · Built 1982 · SingleFamily · Active · 131 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,183/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $47/mo
• Annual: $559/yr
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.34%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($559/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (20.6% below list).
• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $118k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mountain View School District (rural): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #107 of 238 in AR (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stone County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.