1673 Red River Rd · Fox, AR 72051

$149,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1982 1.49 ac lot $94/sqft · 71% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3 bedroom home with one bathroom and a new roof situated on 1.49 acres m/l in the great little community of Fox, AR. Fox has a park, a school, a post office and a great country store with gas and much more for your convenience. This property offers a spacious yard with a convenient circle driveway, making it ideal for a family home or a peaceful retreat. Located minutes from Mountain View and within a couple hours of Branson, Missouri and Little Rock. Outdoor enthusiasts will love being up the road from the Little Red River, with the White River and Greers Ferry Lake also nearby. Enjoy country living with easy access to fishing, boating, and small town charm. Get your showing scheduled today!!

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Country living
• Greers ferry lake

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• SPACIOUS YARD
• CIRCLE DRIVEWAY
• GREERS FERRY LAKE
• COUNTRY LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($559/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (20.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $118k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mountain View School District (rural): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #107 of 238 in AR (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Stone County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,296 (20.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.34%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $519,440
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -71.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $20,846
• Equity at exit: $66,997

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.68×
• Total profit: $69,981
• Equity at exit: $103,250

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72051

• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $534/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,124

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $131	-5% $89	+0% $47	+5% $4	+10% $-38
Rent	-10% $-47	-5% $0	+0% $47	+5% $93	+10% $140
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $84	base $47	+0.5pp $8	+1.0pp $-31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 109 DOM
16. 2026-02-10
    listed $149,000 New Listing 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    Charming 3 bedroom home with one bathroom and a new roof situated on 1.49 acres m/l in the great little community of Fox, AR. Fox has a park, a school, a post office and a great country store with gas and much more for your convenience. This property offers a spacious yard with a convenient circle driveway, making it ideal for a family home or a peaceful retreat. Located minutes from Mountain View and within a couple hours of Branson, Missouri and Little Rock. Outdoor enthusiasts will love being up the road from the Little Red River, with the White River and Greers Ferry Lake also nearby. Enjoy country living with easy access to fishing, boating, and small town charm. Get your showing scheduled today!!

17. 2023-09-26
    historical
18. 2023-09-01
    price $163,500
19. 2023-07-18
    listed $169,999 New Listing
20. 2022-09-02
    soldstatus $100,000 Sold
21. 2022-09-02
    soldstatus $100,000
22. 2022-07-05
    historical
23. 2022-07-03
    listed $100,000
24. 2008-06-26
    soldstatus $67,000
25. 2008-06-26
    soldstatus $67,000
26. 2008-05-20
    historical
27. 2007-07-12
    listed $70,000
28. 2003-10-15
    soldstatus $38,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $534 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $954 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$419/yr (+$35/mo · 78.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$534
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,136
• − Management: −$1,136
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$2,036
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$489
• After-tax cash flow: $1,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mountain View School District
• NCES district ID: 0510200
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $31,281
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6192
• State rank: #107 of 238 in AR

Livability — Fox

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fox, AR
• City population: 604
• Population (ZIP): 604

Population outlook (Stone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,440 people
• By 2030: 12,372 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 12,081 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 11,628 · -6.5%
• By 2075: 10,863 · -12.7%
• By 2100: 9,420 · -24.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 11% Iranian 4% Romanian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.7) · D 18.1% · R 79.7% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.4pp · 2024: -61.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.7 2020: R+57.9 2016: R+52.3 2012: R+45.2 2008: R+36.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+286.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Listed $149,000 CARMLS
• 2023-09-26 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2023-09-01 Price Changed $163,500 CARMLS
• 2023-07-18 Listed $169,999 CARMLS
• 2022-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-02 Sold (MLS) $100,000 CARMLS
• 2022-07-05 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2022-07-03 Listed $100,000 CARMLS
• 2008-06-26 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 2008-06-26 Sold (MLS) $67,000 CARMLS
• 2008-05-20 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2007-07-12 Listed $70,000 CARMLS
• 2003-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $38,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $534 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.