4444 Riverdale Rd

Toccoa, GA 30577

$157,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,361/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$823
• Tax + insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $-10/mo
• Annual: $-118/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $43,960

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $157k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-118/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (13.3% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#131 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Stephens County (rural): math 34% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #74 of 174 in GA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Toccoa Elementary School (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #374 of 1,228 statewide, top 31%, 563 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 51% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 226 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Stephens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stephens County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $157k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Toccoa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.