4444 Riverdale Rd · Toccoa, GA 30577

$157,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1992 1.10 ac lot $170/sqft · 16% below area Est $187k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Relaxing retreat bordering and looking out at Lake Hartwell. Terrific fishing get-away place or full-time home. Open floor plan...kitchen, dining, great room. Split bedroom plan... bedroom and bath on each side. Covered front porch and back deck. Metal roof. Carport or covered parking for your favorite boat! Enjoy fishing, kayaking, etc. from your own property. Picnic at the lake without leaving home! 1.10 acres, fenced back yard, gentle property. Joins Corp of Engineers property. Non dockable.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Water frontage
• Full acre

Tags

• WATER FRONTAGE
• BONUS CABIN
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FULL ACRE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 1.1 acres
• HOA & community: No HOA

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking; Has a garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-family residence; Manufactured house structure; Resale property; One story
• Construction: Built in 1992; Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot is private; Lake Hartwell nearby

Interior

• Kitchen: No specific kitchen appliance list provided
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Wood heating option; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features; One-level living; No basement; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer included; Laundry features listed as other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $157k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-118/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $156k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Toccoa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#131 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Stephens County (rural): math 34% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #74 of 174 in GA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Toccoa Elementary School (math 46% / reading 39%, grade F, #374 of 1,228 statewide, top 31%, 563 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 51% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 226 active listings in the ZIP; 52 units permitted in Stephens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Stephens County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $157k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,097 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,077
• List price: $157,000
• Delta: -16.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.07×
• Total profit: $47,103
• Equity at exit: $101,228

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $138,486
• Equity at exit: $185,797

Cash invested: $43,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30577

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,361 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$823
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$196 /mo · $2,355/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,373

Max offer price $155,578

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,250
• Closing costs: $4,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $157,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $157,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $157,000 Price Change 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $157,000 Price Change 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   pricestatus $157,000 Price Change 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $160,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 33 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $160,000 1102-char remark
19. 2026-05-07
    price $165,000 1102-char remark
20. 2026-04-17
    listed $175,000 New 1102-char remark
21. 2022-09-09
    soldstatus $95,000 Sold 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Relaxing retreat bordering and looking out at Lake Hartwell. Terrific fishing get-away place or full-time home. Open floor plan...kitchen, dining, great room. Split bedroom plan... bedroom and bath on each side. Covered front porch and back deck. Metal roof. Carport or covered parking for your favorite boat! Enjoy fishing, kayaking, etc. from your own property. Picnic at the lake without leaving home! 1.10 acres, fenced back yard, gentle property. Joins Corp of Engineers property. Non dockable.

22. 2022-09-09
    soldstatus $95,000

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Relaxing retreat bordering and looking out at Lake Hartwell. Terrific fishing get-away place or full-time home. Open floor plan...kitchen, dining, great room. Split bedroom plan... bedroom and bath on each side. Covered front porch and back deck. Metal roof. Carport or covered parking for your favorite boat! Enjoy fishing, kayaking, etc. from your own property. Picnic at the lake without leaving home! 1.10 acres, fenced back yard, gentle property. Joins Corp of Engineers property. Non dockable.

23. 2022-08-16
    status Under Contract 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Relaxing retreat bordering and looking out at Lake Hartwell. Terrific fishing get-away place or full-time home. Open floor plan...kitchen, dining, great room. Split bedroom plan... bedroom and bath on each side. Covered front porch and back deck. Metal roof. Carport or covered parking for your favorite boat! Enjoy fishing, kayaking, etc. from your own property. Picnic at the lake without leaving home! 1.10 acres, fenced back yard, gentle property. Joins Corp of Engineers property. Non dockable.

24. 2022-08-01
    listed $120,000 New 509-char remark

    Show marketing remark (509 chars)

    Relaxing retreat bordering and looking out at Lake Hartwell. Terrific fishing get-away place or full-time home. Open floor plan...kitchen, dining, great room. Split bedroom plan... bedroom and bath on each side. Covered front porch and back deck. Metal roof. Carport or covered parking for your favorite boat! Enjoy fishing, kayaking, etc. from your own property. Picnic at the lake without leaving home! 1.10 acres, fenced back yard, gentle property. Joins Corp of Engineers property. Non dockable.

25. 2018-09-06
    soldstatus $79,000
26. 2018-09-03
    soldstatus $79,000

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    Just ease down the gravel road to a tranquil retreat overlooking Lake Hartwell. Great full time home or a fishing get-away spot! Open floor plan, kitchen overlooks the great room and dining room. Owners suite with private bathroom. Covered front porch and back deck. Covered parking for your favorite boat! State park and public boat ramp 1.5+/- miles away. Sit on your waters edge and enjoy the fishing, kayaking, canoeing without ever leaving home. Its a special place ~ come check it out soon! Joins Corp of Engineers property. Non dockable.

27. 2018-07-30
    listed $87,000

    Show marketing remark (552 chars)

    Just ease down the gravel road to a tranquil retreat overlooking Lake Hartwell. Great full time home or a fishing get-away spot! Open floor plan, kitchen overlooks the great room and dining room. Owners suite with private bathroom. Covered front porch and back deck. Covered parking for your favorite boat! State park and public boat ramp 1.5+/- miles away. Sit on your waters edge and enjoy the fishing, kayaking, canoeing without ever leaving home. Its a special place ~ come check it out soon! Joins Corp of Engineers property. Non dockable.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,794
• − Property taxes: −$2,355
• − Insurance: −$785
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,307
• − Management: −$1,307
• − Depreciation: −$4,567
• Taxable loss: −$2,783
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$668
• After-tax cash flow: $550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stephens County
• NCES district ID: 1304560
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,416
• Composite: 28.42/100
• National rank: #6759
• State rank: #74 of 174 in GA

Livability — Toccoa

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #131
• US rank: #9152

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Stephens County · 22,964 people
• City population: 22,964
• Metro: Toccoa, GA
• Population (ZIP): 22,964
• Household income: $53,818
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 594.0

Population outlook (Stephens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,797 people
• By 2030: 22,785 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 20,653 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 18,745 · -21.2%
• By 2075: 14,780 · -37.9%
• By 2100: 11,079 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stephens

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 18.4% · R 81.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.4pp toward R · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+58.7 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+53.7 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 320.5275
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Toccoa, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+80.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $157,000 GAMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $160,000 GAMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $165,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $175,000 GAMLS
• 2022-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-09 Sold (MLS) $95,000 GAMLS
• 2022-08-16 Pending — GAMLS
• 2022-08-01 Listed $120,000 GAMLS
• 2018-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records
• 2018-09-03 Sold (MLS) $79,000 GAMLS
• 2018-07-30 Listed $87,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $188 · +26.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.