1606 Marsh Wood Dr

Brandon, FL 33584

$314,899D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Pending · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,358/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax + insurance: −$253
• HOA: −$46
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-87/mo
• Annual: $-1,047/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.19%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $88,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (25.1% below list).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $236k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#26 in FL, #507 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Colson Elementary School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,596 of 2,144 statewide, top 75%, 674 students, 61% FRL); Burnett Middle School (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 628 students, 73% FRL); Armwood High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 2,400 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 195 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $214k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.