1606 Marsh Wood Dr · Brandon, FL 33584

$314,899

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 83 Days on market

Built 2005 8,360 sqft lot $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2-car garage home featuring a spacious layout and an impressive oversized backyard. * New Roof, New AC, and New Water heater being installed prior to closing * From the moment you arrive, you’ll notice the mature trees and established landscaping that provide shade and privacy. Inside, the home offers a bright and open living area with vaulted ceilings and durable wood-look flooring, creating an inviting space for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen features ample cabinet storage, generous counter space, and a functional layout that opens to the dining area with sliding glass doors leading to a large screened-in lanai — perfect for enjoying Florida evenings while overlooking the huge fenced backyard. The expansive backyard provides plenty of room for pets, play, gardening, or even a future pool.

Key facts

• Wood look flooring
• Vaulted ceilings
• Oversized backyard

Tags

• OVERSIZED BACKYARD
• MATURE TREES
• ESTABLISHED LANDSCAPING
• BRIGHT OPEN LIVING AREA
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• WOOD LOOK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-87 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $299k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#26 in FL, #507 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Colson Elementary School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,596 of 2,144 statewide, top 75%, 674 students, 61% FRL); Burnett Middle School (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 628 students, 73% FRL); Armwood High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 2,400 students, 66% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 195 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $214k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,803 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.19%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-58,849
• Equity at exit: $46,952

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-67,530
• Equity at exit: $27,227

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33584

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,358 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,458/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,468

Max offer price $299,492

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $91	-5% $2	+0% $-87	+5% $-176	+10% $-265
Rent	-10% $-274	-5% $-180	+0% $-87	+5% $6	+10% $99
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $-7	base $-87	+0.5pp $-169	+1.0pp $-252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1022 Harvest Moon Dr Seffner, FL	3.0	2.0	1179	$1,985	$1.68	0d	1	1.10mi
204 E Tennessee Ave Seffner, FL	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	0d	1	1.32mi
2004 Lenna Ave Seffner, FL	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,500	$1.51	26d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-15
   price $314,899 879-char remark

   Show marketing remark (879 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2-car garage home featuring a spacious layout and an impressive oversized backyard. * New Roof, New AC, and New Water heater being installed prior to closing * From the moment you arrive, you’ll notice the mature trees and established landscaping that provide shade and privacy. Inside, the home offers a bright and open living area with vaulted ceilings and durable wood-look flooring, creating an inviting space for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen features ample cabinet storage, generous counter space, and a functional layout that opens to the dining area with sliding glass doors leading to a large screened-in lanai — perfect for enjoying Florida evenings while overlooking the huge fenced backyard. The expansive backyard provides plenty of room for pets, play, gardening, or even a future pool.

2. 2026-04-20
   price $314,900 879-char remark

   Show marketing remark (879 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2-car garage home featuring a spacious layout and an impressive oversized backyard. * New Roof, New AC, and New Water heater being installed prior to closing * From the moment you arrive, you’ll notice the mature trees and established landscaping that provide shade and privacy. Inside, the home offers a bright and open living area with vaulted ceilings and durable wood-look flooring, creating an inviting space for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen features ample cabinet storage, generous counter space, and a functional layout that opens to the dining area with sliding glass doors leading to a large screened-in lanai — perfect for enjoying Florida evenings while overlooking the huge fenced backyard. The expansive backyard provides plenty of room for pets, play, gardening, or even a future pool.

3. 2026-04-10
   price $319,999 879-char remark

   Show marketing remark (879 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2-car garage home featuring a spacious layout and an impressive oversized backyard. * New Roof, New AC, and New Water heater being installed prior to closing * From the moment you arrive, you’ll notice the mature trees and established landscaping that provide shade and privacy. Inside, the home offers a bright and open living area with vaulted ceilings and durable wood-look flooring, creating an inviting space for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen features ample cabinet storage, generous counter space, and a functional layout that opens to the dining area with sliding glass doors leading to a large screened-in lanai — perfect for enjoying Florida evenings while overlooking the huge fenced backyard. The expansive backyard provides plenty of room for pets, play, gardening, or even a future pool.

4. 2026-04-06
   status Active 879-char remark

   Show marketing remark (879 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2-car garage home featuring a spacious layout and an impressive oversized backyard. * New Roof, New AC, and New Water heater being installed prior to closing * From the moment you arrive, you’ll notice the mature trees and established landscaping that provide shade and privacy. Inside, the home offers a bright and open living area with vaulted ceilings and durable wood-look flooring, creating an inviting space for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen features ample cabinet storage, generous counter space, and a functional layout that opens to the dining area with sliding glass doors leading to a large screened-in lanai — perfect for enjoying Florida evenings while overlooking the huge fenced backyard. The expansive backyard provides plenty of room for pets, play, gardening, or even a future pool.

5. 2026-03-25
   status Pending 879-char remark

   Show marketing remark (879 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2-car garage home featuring a spacious layout and an impressive oversized backyard. * New Roof, New AC, and New Water heater being installed prior to closing * From the moment you arrive, you’ll notice the mature trees and established landscaping that provide shade and privacy. Inside, the home offers a bright and open living area with vaulted ceilings and durable wood-look flooring, creating an inviting space for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen features ample cabinet storage, generous counter space, and a functional layout that opens to the dining area with sliding glass doors leading to a large screened-in lanai — perfect for enjoying Florida evenings while overlooking the huge fenced backyard. The expansive backyard provides plenty of room for pets, play, gardening, or even a future pool.

6. 2026-03-16
   price $320,000 879-char remark

   Show marketing remark (879 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2-car garage home featuring a spacious layout and an impressive oversized backyard. * New Roof, New AC, and New Water heater being installed prior to closing * From the moment you arrive, you’ll notice the mature trees and established landscaping that provide shade and privacy. Inside, the home offers a bright and open living area with vaulted ceilings and durable wood-look flooring, creating an inviting space for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen features ample cabinet storage, generous counter space, and a functional layout that opens to the dining area with sliding glass doors leading to a large screened-in lanai — perfect for enjoying Florida evenings while overlooking the huge fenced backyard. The expansive backyard provides plenty of room for pets, play, gardening, or even a future pool.

7. 2026-02-21
   listed $325,000 Active 879-char remark

   Show marketing remark (879 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2-car garage home featuring a spacious layout and an impressive oversized backyard. * New Roof, New AC, and New Water heater being installed prior to closing * From the moment you arrive, you’ll notice the mature trees and established landscaping that provide shade and privacy. Inside, the home offers a bright and open living area with vaulted ceilings and durable wood-look flooring, creating an inviting space for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen features ample cabinet storage, generous counter space, and a functional layout that opens to the dining area with sliding glass doors leading to a large screened-in lanai — perfect for enjoying Florida evenings while overlooking the huge fenced backyard. The expansive backyard provides plenty of room for pets, play, gardening, or even a future pool.

8. 2006-01-06
   soldstatus $214,000
9. 2005-12-16
   soldstatus $214,000 182-char remark

   Show marketing remark (182 chars)

   On Gold Pond!! Exceptional new 3/2 on a pond. Extra large yard. Upgraded appliances, cabinets, tile, windows and much more! No CDD, low HOA fees, a must see!! Owner is a realtor.

10. 2005-07-29
    listed $229,900 182-char remark

    Show marketing remark (182 chars)

    On Gold Pond!! Exceptional new 3/2 on a pond. Extra large yard. Upgraded appliances, cabinets, tile, windows and much more! No CDD, low HOA fees, a must see!! Owner is a realtor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,458 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,614 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,156/yr (+$96/mo · 79.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$1,458
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,264
• − Management: −$2,264
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable loss: −$6,615
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,588
• After-tax cash flow: $541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #507

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A- Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brandon, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 92,716
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,579
• Household income: $72,267
• Rent vs Own: 24.7% rent · 75.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 16% Two or more races 14% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 17% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -286.15%
• Current HPI: 312.894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+37.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $314,899 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $314,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $319,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $320,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-21 Listed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $214,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-16 Sold (MLS) $214,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-07-29 Listed $229,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,458 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.