4037 156th St W

Rosemount, MN 55068

$300,000C-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,010 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,988/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$566
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$627
• Net cashflow: $222/mo
• Annual: $2,659/yr
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.17%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 1.00%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (0.4% below list).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $296k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#5 in MN, #148 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D.
• Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #58 of 301 in MN (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 403 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $99k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.5% in Rosemount — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.