4037 156th St W · Rosemount, MN 55068

$300,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,010 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1994 10,672 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FORMER MODEL HAS BEEN METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED. IMMACULATE 4 LVL BOASTS VAULTS, HARDWOOD FLRS, GAS FP, MN FLR LAUNDRY/MUD RM, & 3 STALL GARAGE. ALL ON AN AWESOME LOT BACKING TO PARK. GREAT FAMILY HOME & NEIGHBORHOOD, HURRY, WON'T LAST.

Key facts

• Rare opportunity
• Private backyard
• Exceptional schools

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• OPENS DIRECTLY TO A PARK
• HIGHLY REGARDED NEIGHBORHOOD
• EXCEPTIONAL SCHOOLS
• STRONG COMMUNITY PRIDE
• RARE OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $299k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $296k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.5% in Rosemount — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#5 in MN, #148 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D.
• Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #58 of 301 in MN (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 394 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $99k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $295,500 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.17%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-25,062
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $37,533
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55068

• Home prices YoY: -30.8%
• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 394
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,988 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$440 /mo · $5,286/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$627
• Net cashflow: $222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,707

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $391	-5% $307	+0% $222	+5% $137	+10% $52
Rent	-10% $-14	-5% $104	+0% $222	+5% $340	+10% $458
Rate	-1.0pp $373	-0.5pp $298	base $222	+0.5pp $144	+1.0pp $65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3967 156th St W Rosemount, MN	4.0	2.0	1907	$2,899	$1.52	17d	1	0.09mi
16106 Duvane Way Lakeville, MN	3.0	3.0	1564	$3,395	$2.17	22d	1	0.91mi
5076 161st St W Lakeville, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1186	$2,702	$2.28	0d	14	1.19mi
15899 Elmhurst Ln Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$2,667	$2.59	0d	14	1.33mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2025-12-09
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-09
   price $300,000
3. 2025-11-18
   listed $399,000 Active
4. 2015-11-10
   soldstatus $275,000
5. 2003-02-20
   soldstatus $260,000
6. 2002-10-25
   soldstatus $260,000 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   FORMER MODEL HAS BEEN METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED. IMMACULATE 4 LVL BOASTS VAULTS, HARDWOOD FLRS, GAS FP, MN FLR LAUNDRY/MUD RM, & 3 STALL GARAGE. ALL ON AN AWESOME LOT BACKING TO PARK. GREAT FAMILY HOME & NEIGHBORHOOD, HURRY, WON'T LAST.

7. 2002-09-24
   historical 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   FORMER MODEL HAS BEEN METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED. IMMACULATE 4 LVL BOASTS VAULTS, HARDWOOD FLRS, GAS FP, MN FLR LAUNDRY/MUD RM, & 3 STALL GARAGE. ALL ON AN AWESOME LOT BACKING TO PARK. GREAT FAMILY HOME & NEIGHBORHOOD, HURRY, WON'T LAST.

8. 2002-08-28
   listed $261,900 242-char remark

   Show marketing remark (242 chars)

   FORMER MODEL HAS BEEN METICULOUSLY MAINTAINED. IMMACULATE 4 LVL BOASTS VAULTS, HARDWOOD FLRS, GAS FP, MN FLR LAUNDRY/MUD RM, & 3 STALL GARAGE. ALL ON AN AWESOME LOT BACKING TO PARK. GREAT FAMILY HOME & NEIGHBORHOOD, HURRY, WON'T LAST.

9. 1995-03-20
   soldstatus $155,000
10. 1995-02-22
    historical
11. 1994-07-26
    listed $152,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,286 · $440/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,286 · $440/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$5,286
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,868
• − Management: −$2,868
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$2,201
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$528
• After-tax cash flow: $3,187/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan
• NCES district ID: 2732390
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $85,559
• Composite: 49.48/100
• National rank: #2000
• State rank: #58 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rosemount

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #148

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosemount, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 33,119
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 33,119
• Household income: $127,798
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 295.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 7% Asian 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.45%
• Current HPI: 223.9769
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.02%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+96.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $300,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Listed $399,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2003-02-20 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2002-10-25 Sold (MLS) $260,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-09-24 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-08-28 Listed $261,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-03-20 Sold (MLS) $155,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-02-22 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-07-26 Listed $152,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,286 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.