1220 Bernal Cir

Montrose, VA 23231

$287,450D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Pending · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,849/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,507
• Tax + insurance: −$344
• HOA: −$30
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-421/mo
• Annual: $-5,054/yr
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.28%
• DSCR: 0.72
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $80,486

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $287k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-421 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (35.7% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $185k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#129 in VA, #4,169 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anthony P. Mehfoud Elementary (331 students, 89% FRL); John Rolfe Middle (math 15% / reading 28%, grade F, #338 of 342 statewide, top 99%, 764 students, 89% FRL); Varina High (math 40% / reading 73%, grade C, #270 of 319 statewide, top 86%, 1,405 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 34% district-wide (54 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Henrico County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.