1220 Bernal Cir · Montrose, VA 23231

$287,450

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 2011 0.27 ac lot $160/sqft · 18% below area Est $352k · 18% under $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1220 Bernal Circle— with some imagination you can see the potential and charm of this colonial nestled in a peaceful Varina neighborhood with quick access to downtown Richmond, the airport, and major highways. Step inside to the foyer and a conveniently located half bath. The bright and open family room flows seamlessly into the kitchen, where you’ll enjoy abundant space for cabinets and a cozy eat-in area ideal for everyday meals or entertaining guests. Upstairs, you’ll discover three comfortable bedrooms and two full bathrooms, including a spacious primary suite complete with a private ensuite bath and walk-in closet. A dedicated laundry area adds practicality and ease to daily living. This home offers comfort, convenience, and value. Don’t miss your chance to make 1220 Bernal Circle your next home!

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2011

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $287k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-421 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (35.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#129 in VA, #4,169 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anthony P. Mehfoud Elementary (331 students, 89% FRL); John Rolfe Middle (math 15% / reading 28%, grade F, #338 of 342 statewide, top 99%, 764 students, 89% FRL); Varina High (math 40% / reading 73%, grade C, #270 of 319 statewide, top 86%, 1,405 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 34% district-wide (54 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Henrico County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 188 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,875 (35.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.28%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $351,863
• List price: $287,450
• Delta: -18.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1340 New Market Rd	0.18mi	3/1.0	1,820 (+1%)	3mo	$310,000	$170	81
1468 Freeless St	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,728 (-4%)	2mo	$236,000	$137	76
6409 Grey Rock Ln	0.07mi	3/3.0	2,040 (+13%)	1mo	$425,000	$208	71
1116 Elmshadow Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,800 (0%)	2mo	$350,000	$194	64
1425 Bull Run Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-13%)	2mo	$155,000	$99	64
1124 Lovey Ln	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,660 (-8%)	6mo	$299,900	$181	62
1300 Bentbrook Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,832 (+2%)	2mo	$300,000	$164	59
1395 Loudon St	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,886 (+5%)	3mo	$391,414	$208	55
1706 Hounds Way	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,021 (+12%)	5mo	$358,800	$178	54
1419 Cedar Lawn Ave	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-11%)	5mo	$354,000	$221	54
1429 Cedar Lawn Ave	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,600 (-11%)	6mo	$355,100	$222	53
1417 Northbury Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,576 (-12%)	2mo	$217,000	$138	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-76,982
• Equity at exit: $42,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-115,698
• Equity at exit: $24,853

Cash invested: $80,486 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23231

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,507
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,694/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $-421

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,382

Max offer price $213,045

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-258	-5% $-340	+0% $-421	+5% $-503	+10% $-584
Rent	-10% $-567	-5% $-494	+0% $-421	+5% $-348	+10% $-275
Rate	-1.0pp $-276	-0.5pp $-348	base $-421	+0.5pp $-496	+1.0pp $-571

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,862
• Closing costs: $8,624
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 847-char remark

   Show marketing remark (847 chars)

   Welcome to 1220 Bernal Circle— with some imagination you can see the potential and charm of this colonial nestled in a peaceful Varina neighborhood with quick access to downtown Richmond, the airport, and major highways. Step inside to the foyer and a conveniently located half bath. The bright and open family room flows seamlessly into the kitchen, where you’ll enjoy abundant space for cabinets and a cozy eat-in area ideal for everyday meals or entertaining guests. Upstairs, you’ll discover three comfortable bedrooms and two full bathrooms, including a spacious primary suite complete with a private ensuite bath and walk-in closet. A dedicated laundry area adds practicality and ease to daily living. This home offers comfort, convenience, and value. Don’t miss your chance to make 1220 Bernal Circle your next home!

2. 2026-05-13
   status Active 847-char remark

   Show marketing remark (847 chars)

   Welcome to 1220 Bernal Circle— with some imagination you can see the potential and charm of this colonial nestled in a peaceful Varina neighborhood with quick access to downtown Richmond, the airport, and major highways. Step inside to the foyer and a conveniently located half bath. The bright and open family room flows seamlessly into the kitchen, where you’ll enjoy abundant space for cabinets and a cozy eat-in area ideal for everyday meals or entertaining guests. Upstairs, you’ll discover three comfortable bedrooms and two full bathrooms, including a spacious primary suite complete with a private ensuite bath and walk-in closet. A dedicated laundry area adds practicality and ease to daily living. This home offers comfort, convenience, and value. Don’t miss your chance to make 1220 Bernal Circle your next home!

3. 2026-02-19
   status Pending 847-char remark

   Show marketing remark (847 chars)

   Welcome to 1220 Bernal Circle— with some imagination you can see the potential and charm of this colonial nestled in a peaceful Varina neighborhood with quick access to downtown Richmond, the airport, and major highways. Step inside to the foyer and a conveniently located half bath. The bright and open family room flows seamlessly into the kitchen, where you’ll enjoy abundant space for cabinets and a cozy eat-in area ideal for everyday meals or entertaining guests. Upstairs, you’ll discover three comfortable bedrooms and two full bathrooms, including a spacious primary suite complete with a private ensuite bath and walk-in closet. A dedicated laundry area adds practicality and ease to daily living. This home offers comfort, convenience, and value. Don’t miss your chance to make 1220 Bernal Circle your next home!

4. 2026-01-27
   status Active 847-char remark

   Show marketing remark (847 chars)

   Welcome to 1220 Bernal Circle— with some imagination you can see the potential and charm of this colonial nestled in a peaceful Varina neighborhood with quick access to downtown Richmond, the airport, and major highways. Step inside to the foyer and a conveniently located half bath. The bright and open family room flows seamlessly into the kitchen, where you’ll enjoy abundant space for cabinets and a cozy eat-in area ideal for everyday meals or entertaining guests. Upstairs, you’ll discover three comfortable bedrooms and two full bathrooms, including a spacious primary suite complete with a private ensuite bath and walk-in closet. A dedicated laundry area adds practicality and ease to daily living. This home offers comfort, convenience, and value. Don’t miss your chance to make 1220 Bernal Circle your next home!

5. 2025-12-30
   status Pending 847-char remark

   Show marketing remark (847 chars)

   Welcome to 1220 Bernal Circle— with some imagination you can see the potential and charm of this colonial nestled in a peaceful Varina neighborhood with quick access to downtown Richmond, the airport, and major highways. Step inside to the foyer and a conveniently located half bath. The bright and open family room flows seamlessly into the kitchen, where you’ll enjoy abundant space for cabinets and a cozy eat-in area ideal for everyday meals or entertaining guests. Upstairs, you’ll discover three comfortable bedrooms and two full bathrooms, including a spacious primary suite complete with a private ensuite bath and walk-in closet. A dedicated laundry area adds practicality and ease to daily living. This home offers comfort, convenience, and value. Don’t miss your chance to make 1220 Bernal Circle your next home!

6. 2025-12-11
   listed $287,450 Active 847-char remark

   Show marketing remark (847 chars)

   Welcome to 1220 Bernal Circle— with some imagination you can see the potential and charm of this colonial nestled in a peaceful Varina neighborhood with quick access to downtown Richmond, the airport, and major highways. Step inside to the foyer and a conveniently located half bath. The bright and open family room flows seamlessly into the kitchen, where you’ll enjoy abundant space for cabinets and a cozy eat-in area ideal for everyday meals or entertaining guests. Upstairs, you’ll discover three comfortable bedrooms and two full bathrooms, including a spacious primary suite complete with a private ensuite bath and walk-in closet. A dedicated laundry area adds practicality and ease to daily living. This home offers comfort, convenience, and value. Don’t miss your chance to make 1220 Bernal Circle your next home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,694 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,694 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,185
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,102
• − Property taxes: −$2,694
• − Insurance: −$1,437
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,775
• − Management: −$1,775
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$8,362
• Taxable loss: −$10,320
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,477
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,578/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Montrose

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #4169

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,544
• Household income: $76,505
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1555.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 34% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.28%
• Current HPI: 315.8154
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-05-13 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2026-02-19 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-01-27 Relisted — CVRMLS
• 2025-12-30 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $287,450 CVRMLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,694 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.