3844 Bagley St

Detroit, MI 48216

$135,000B+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,330 sqft · Built 1900 · Townhouse · Pending · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,001/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$472
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $401/mo
• Annual: $4,808/yr
• Cap rate: 9.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.72%
• DSCR: 1.57
• 1% rule: 1.48%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Earhart Elementarymiddle School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #1,325 of 1,397 statewide, top 99%, 910 students, 82% FRL); Western International High School (math 2% / reading 22%, grade F, #653 of 713 statewide, top 92%, 2,151 students, 76% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 105 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 12 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.3% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• At $2,001/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 431% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.