4968 Morgan Dr

Birch Bay, WA 98230

$579,999D

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,127 sqft · Built 1957 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,139/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,042
• Tax + insurance: −$505
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $-1,066/mo
• Annual: $-12,797/yr
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.88%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $162,400

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $580k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $392k (32.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (45.9% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($563k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $314k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $62k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $580k implies a 625% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$100k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.