4968 Morgan Dr · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$579,999

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,127 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1957 5,829 sqft lot $273/sqft · at area comps Est $608k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Be ready to be awed by this exceptional Birch Bay residence, just a short stroll from breathtaking sunsets, scenic island views, and waterfront dining. Beautifully updated inside and out, this home blends coastal charm with refined, modern finishes. The main level welcomes you with an oversized living room that flows seamlessly into a formal dining area and stylish kitchen. Designed to impress, the kitchen features stainless steel appliances, an eye-catching backsplash, and a cozy island perfect for gathering and meal prep. The dining space is anchored by a striking electric fireplace with custom tile detail, creating warmth and architectural interest. Also on the main level is an expansive

Key facts

• Birch bay residence
• Stylish kitchen
• Formal dining area

Tags

• BIRCH BAY RESIDENCE
• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• EYE-CATCHING BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, and VA financing

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; RV parking
• Security: Partially fenced
• Utilities: Electric power; Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two-story; Entry at main level; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Built in 1957 (effective year); Wood construction; Composition roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Wood products; Deck; Partially fenced yard; Outbuildings; RV parking; Cable TV available; High-speed internet available; Located on a dead-end street; Level lot; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms total (3 on main level, 2 on upper level)
• Flooring: Vinyl plank flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 2 three-quarter bathrooms; 1 bathtub; 2 showers
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Dining room; Fireplace; Walk-in closets

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $580k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $392k (32.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $314k (45.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $314k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 461 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $62k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$100k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($563k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $580k implies a 625% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $313,937 (45.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.88%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $607,742
• List price: $579,999
• Delta: -4.56%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4999 Anderson	0.30mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,140 (+1%)	9mo	$730,000	$341	70
8166 Merle Pl	0.13mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,023 (-5%)	16mo	$484,950	$240	66
8238 Breeze Loop	0.36mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,414 (+14%)	22mo	$558,500	$231	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $248,039
• Equity at exit: $522,509

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.83×
• Total profit: $784,024
• Equity at exit: $1,126,810

Cash invested: $162,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,139 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,042
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,160/yr
• Insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$659
• Net cashflow: $-1,066

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,489

Max offer price $391,605

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-738	-5% $-902	+0% $-1,066	+5% $-1,231	+10% $-1,395
Rent	-10% $-1,314	-5% $-1,190	+0% $-1,066	+5% $-942	+10% $-818
Rate	-1.0pp $-774	-0.5pp $-919	base $-1,066	+0.5pp $-1,217	+1.0pp $-1,370

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $145,000
• Closing costs: $17,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $579,999 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $579,999 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $579,999 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $579,999 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $579,999 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $579,999 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $579,999 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $579,999 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $579,999 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $579,999 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $579,999 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $579,999 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $579,999 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $579,999 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $579,999 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $579,999 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $579,999 Active
18. 2003-08-18
    soldstatus $80,000
19. 2003-03-18
    listed $88,500
20. 2002-11-01
    soldstatus $119,150

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,160 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,684 · $474/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,524/yr (+$210/mo · 79.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,489
• − Property taxes: −$3,160
• − Insurance: −$2,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,014
• − Management: −$3,014
• − Depreciation: −$16,873
• Taxable loss: −$23,777
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,706
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+386.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $579,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-18 Sold (MLS) $80,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-03-18 Listed $88,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $119,150 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,160 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.