3184 S Heather Gardens Way Unit 212-408

Aurora, CO 80014

$149,900D-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 870 sqft · Built 1973 · Condo · Active · 176 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,539/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$552
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $-372/mo
• Annual: $-4,467/yr
• Cap rate: 3.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.64%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-372 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $96k (35.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (35.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#70 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Cherry Creek School District No. 5 In The County Of Arapah (urban): math 40% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #11 of 86 in CO (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Polton Community Elementary School (math 15% / reading 32%, grade F, #634 of 966 statewide, top 67%, 477 students, 55% FRL); Prairie Middle School (math 6% / reading 15%, grade F, #245 of 270 statewide, top 91%, 1,383 students, 71% FRL); Overland High School (math 23% / reading 43%, grade F, #216 of 381 statewide, top 57%, 2,109 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 21% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 49% district-wide (-27 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Cherry Creek School District No. 5 In The County Of Arapah average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,927 units permitted in Arapahoe County in 2024 (1,525 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Arapahoe County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $48k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?