1003 Orchard Avenue Ave

Chariton, IA 50049

$49,500B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,880 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 741 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,314/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$260
• Tax + insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $663/mo
• Annual: $7,955/yr
• Cap rate: 22.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.40%
• DSCR: 3.55
• 1% rule: 2.66%
• Cash to close: $13,860

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $663 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 741 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $342 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#84 in IA, #1,703 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Chariton Community School District (town): math 57% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #241 of 289 in IA (top 83%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Columbus Elementary School (284 students, 58% FRL); Chariton Middle School (math 63% / reading 70%, grade A-, #148 of 246 statewide, top 61%, 285 students, 56% FRL); Chariton High School (math 57% / reading 73%, grade B, #208 of 336 statewide, top 62%, 392 students, 50% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lucas County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 22.4% vs local median 4.1% in Chariton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 741 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.