1003 Orchard Avenue Ave · Chariton, IA 50049

$49,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 741 Days on market

Built 1900 6,840 sqft lot $26/sqft · 70% below area ↓ 24% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity to finish the interior of this large home your way. Exterior stucco complete. Roof and electric breaker box and windows about 12 years old. The old open front stairway could be restored and be beautiful again. Many possibilities.

Key facts

• 6,840 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

Tags

• EXTERIOR STUCCO COMPLETE
• ROOF AND ELECTRIC BREAKER BOX

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $663 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.4% vs local median 4.6% in Chariton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#84 in IA, #1,703 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Chariton Community School District (town): math 57% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #241 of 289 in IA (top 83%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $342 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 741 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (24%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 741 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.40%
• DSCR: 3.55
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,231
• List price: $49,500
• Delta: -70.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
534 N Grand St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,972 (+5%)	2mo	$15,500	$8	80
534 N 8th St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (-2%)	7mo	$206,000	$112	77
821 N Grand St	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,926 (+2%)	14mo	$60,000	$31	75
1223 Park Ave	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,780 (-5%)	12mo	$190,000	$107	70
632 Osage Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (-2%)	13mo	$127,000	$69	65
1019 Ilion Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,616 (-14%)	1mo	$200,000	$124	55
813 Armory Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,968 (+5%)	4mo	$162,000	$82	52
1603 Curtis Ave	0.69mi	4/1.5	1,824 (-3%)	15mo	$160,550	$88	49
710 N 6th St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,668 (-11%)	14mo	$250,000	$150	48
1219 N 12th St	0.52mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,724 (-8%)	12mo	$205,000	$119	43
302 S Grand St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,680 (-11%)	8mo	$20,000	$12	38
1405 Woodlawn Ave	0.74mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,728 (-8%)	16mo	$127,000	$73	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $34,243
• Equity at exit: $7,381

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $84,351
• Equity at exit: $4,280

Cash invested: $13,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50049

• Home prices YoY: -4.4%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,314 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$260
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,142/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $663

Break-even live

Break-even rent $475

Max offer price $49,500

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $691	-5% $677	+0% $663	+5% $649	+10% $635
Rent	-10% $559	-5% $611	+0% $663	+5% $715	+10% $767
Rate	-1.0pp $688	-0.5pp $676	base $663	+0.5pp $650	+1.0pp $637

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,375
• Closing costs: $1,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,500 Active 741 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $49,500 Active 740 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,500 Active 738 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,500 Active 737 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,500 Active 736 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,500 Active 735 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,500 Active 733 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,500 Active 732 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,500 Active 729 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,500 Active 728 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,500 Active 727 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,500 Active 726 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,500 Active 723 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,500 Active 722 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,500 Active 721 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,500 Active 720 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,500 Active 719 DOM
18. 2026-04-21
    price $49,500 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Opportunity to finish the interior of this large home your way. Exterior stucco complete. Roof and electric breaker box and windows about 12 years old. The old open front stairway could be restored and be beautiful again. Many possibilities.

19. 2025-12-04
    status Active 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Opportunity to finish the interior of this large home your way. Exterior stucco complete. Roof and electric breaker box and windows about 12 years old. The old open front stairway could be restored and be beautiful again. Many possibilities.

20. 2025-04-23
    price $58,000 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Opportunity to finish the interior of this large home your way. Exterior stucco complete. Roof and electric breaker box and windows about 12 years old. The old open front stairway could be restored and be beautiful again. Many possibilities.

21. 2024-06-10
    listed $65,000 Active 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Opportunity to finish the interior of this large home your way. Exterior stucco complete. Roof and electric breaker box and windows about 12 years old. The old open front stairway could be restored and be beautiful again. Many possibilities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,142 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,142 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,772
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,773
• − Property taxes: −$1,142
• − Insurance: −$248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,262
• − Management: −$1,262
• − Depreciation: −$1,440
• Taxable income: $7,646
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,835
• After-tax cash flow: $6,120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chariton Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1907050
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,415
• Composite: 51.35/100
• National rank: #1738
• State rank: #241 of 289 in IA

Livability — Chariton

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #1703

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chariton, IA
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,106 people
• By 2030: 7,755 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 7,007 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 6,265 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 4,926 · -39.2%
• By 2100: 3,792 · -53.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.1) · D 25.2% · R 73.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.7pp · 2024: -48.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.1 2020: R+43.3 2016: R+38.1 2012: R+6.3 2008: R+6.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.20%
• Current HPI: 220.0223
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-23.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $49,500 IAR
• 2025-12-04 Relisted — IAR
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $58,000 IAR
• 2024-06-10 Listed $65,000 IAR

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,142 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.