402 Round Pond Rd Unit TN10

Smithville Flats, NY 13841

$124,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,172/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax + insurance: −$306
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $-35/mo
• Annual: $-422/yr
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $34,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-422/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (6.1% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,116 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• Greene Central School District (rural): math 56% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #282 of 590 in NY (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Chenango County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chenango County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $108k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.