402 Round Pond Rd Unit TN10 · Smithville Flats, NY 13841

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 71 Days on market

Built 1994 0.84 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming ranch-style home offers easy single-level living with 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Set on a beautiful tree-lined country lot, the property features a generous setback that provides a peaceful natural backdrop. The home boasts a newer Alpine metal roof adding long-lasting durability, while the expansive multi-level rear deck creates the perfect space for outdoor entertaining or quiet relaxation. The home also includes a spacious two-car garage, ideal for vehicles, storage, or workshop needs. A well-kept property with great updates and inviting outdoor living. Call today for your appointment!

Key facts

• 0.84 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1994

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-422/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,116 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• Greene Central School District (rural): math 56% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #282 of 590 in NY (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Chenango County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chenango County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $108k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $117,236 (6.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.21%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $25,726
• Equity at exit: $69,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $80,311
• Equity at exit: $119,723

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13841

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,172 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$254 /mo · $3,052/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,217

Max offer price $118,683

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $36	-5% $0	+0% $-35	+5% $-71	+10% $-106
Rent	-10% $-128	-5% $-82	+0% $-35	+5% $11	+10% $57
Rate	-1.0pp $28	-0.5pp $-3	base $-35	+0.5pp $-68	+1.0pp $-100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $124,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-04-09
    listed $124,900 Active 615-char remark

    Show marketing remark (615 chars)

    This charming ranch-style home offers easy single-level living with 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Set on a beautiful tree-lined country lot, the property features a generous setback that provides a peaceful natural backdrop. The home boasts a newer Alpine metal roof adding long-lasting durability, while the expansive multi-level rear deck creates the perfect space for outdoor entertaining or quiet relaxation. The home also includes a spacious two-car garage, ideal for vehicles, storage, or workshop needs. A well-kept property with great updates and inviting outdoor living. Call today for your appointment!

17. 2022-08-18
    soldstatus $108,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,052 · $254/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,052 · $254/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$3,052
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,125
• − Management: −$1,125
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable loss: −$2,489
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$597
• After-tax cash flow: $175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612750
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $52,876
• Composite: 48.86/100
• National rank: #2084
• State rank: #282 of 590 in NY

Livability — Smithville Flats

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1116
• US rank: #22950

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 394

Population outlook (Chenango County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,669 people
• By 2030: 43,484 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 38,774 · -15.1%
• By 2050: 34,000 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 24,637 · -46.1%
• By 2100: 16,452 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 3% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chenango

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.2) · D 36.4% · R 63.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -27.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.2 2020: R+23.3 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+3.4 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.87%
• Current HPI: 177.5199
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+15.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $124,900 UNYREIS
• 2022-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $108,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,052 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.