14383 Bethel Church Rd

Nelsonia, VA 23308

$158,900C+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,437 sqft · Built 1989 · SingleFamily · Pending · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,341/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$833
• Tax + insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $81/mo
• Annual: $973/yr
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.19%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $44,492

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($973/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (15.6% below list).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $134k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#352 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, housing F.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kegotank Elementary (math 26% / reading 51%, grade F, #924 of 1,108 statewide, top 84%, 479 students, 104% FRL); Arcadia Middle (math 35% / reading 54%, grade D, #278 of 342 statewide, top 82%, 482 students, 102% FRL); Arcadia High (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B-, #213 of 319 statewide, top 69%, 713 students, 117% FRL) — zoned schools average 108% FRL vs 63% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.