14383 Bethel Church Rd · Nelsonia, VA 23308

$158,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,437 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1989 2.37 ac lot $111/sqft · 32% below area Est $245k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Not comfortable in a big city? Then come out to see this 3 bedroom home in a quiet part of the Eastern Shore. Only a few miles from RT. 13, the home sits back off the road. Well maintained yard with plenty of room for all your needs and storage. Single car detached garage, two car garage attached to the home. Tiled floors, double fireplace between living and dining, great open floor plan with large living room and kitchen giving you plenty of room for family and entertaining. There is a mother in law suite, called the Cantina, attached to the home, with separate entrance and 500 sq. ft. of living. Gas heat and a window air unit are all you need in that. This property boasts a large pool as well, with depths from 3' to 8'. Being sold as is.

Key facts

• Chicken coop
• 2.37 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• ATTACHED IN-LAW SUITE
• CUSTOM KITCHEN BACKSPLASH
• BUILT-IN SURROUND SOUND
• DETACHED SINGLE-CAR GARAGE
• SHED FOR ADDITIONAL STORAGE
• CHICKEN COOP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; 2 total parking spaces (including 2 covered)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio/porch; Shed(s); Guest house

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Cooling present
• Interior features: Smoke detectors; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($973/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#352 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: commute D+, amenities F, housing F.
• Accomack County Public School District (rural): math 44% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #99 of 131 in VA (top 76%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Kegotank Elementary (math 26% / reading 51%, grade F, #924 of 1,108 statewide, top 84%, 479 students, 104% FRL); Arcadia Middle (math 35% / reading 54%, grade D, #278 of 342 statewide, top 82%, 482 students, 102% FRL); Arcadia High (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B-, #213 of 319 statewide, top 69%, 713 students, 117% FRL) — zoned schools average 108% FRL vs 63% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 181 units permitted in Accomack County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (6.8% local appreciation)).
• Accomack County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,073 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.19%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,000
• List price: $158,900
• Delta: -35.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

6.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $58,614
• Equity at exit: $108,002

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.75×
• Total profit: $166,623
• Equity at exit: $203,271

Cash invested: $44,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23308

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,341 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$833
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $943/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,238

Max offer price $158,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,725
• Closing costs: $4,767
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1333-char remark
2. 2026-04-26
   listed $158,900 Active 1333-char remark
3. 2026-04-24
   historical
4. 2026-04-17
   price $165,000
5. 2026-04-07
   listed $175,000 Active
6. 2021-07-29
   soldstatus $140,000

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   Not comfortable in a big city? Then come out to see this 3 bedroom home in a quiet part of the Eastern Shore. Only a few miles from RT. 13, the home sits back off the road. Well maintained yard with plenty of room for all your needs and storage. Single car detached garage, two car garage attached to the home. Tiled floors, double fireplace between living and dining, great open floor plan with large living room and kitchen giving you plenty of room for family and entertaining. There is a mother in law suite, called the Cantina, attached to the home, with separate entrance and 500 sq. ft. of living. Gas heat and a window air unit are all you need in that. This property boasts a large pool as well, with depths from 3' to 8'. Being sold as is.

7. 2021-07-29
   soldstatus $140,000

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   Not comfortable in a big city? Then come out to see this 3 bedroom home in a quiet part of the Eastern Shore. Only a few miles from RT. 13, the home sits back off the road. Well maintained yard with plenty of room for all your needs and storage. Single car detached garage, two car garage attached to the home. Tiled floors, double fireplace between living and dining, great open floor plan with large living room and kitchen giving you plenty of room for family and entertaining. There is a mother in law suite, called the Cantina, attached to the home, with separate entrance and 500 sq. ft. of living. Gas heat and a window air unit are all you need in that. This property boasts a large pool as well, with depths from 3' to 8'. Being sold as is.

8. 2020-08-24
   listed $150,000

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   Not comfortable in a big city? Then come out to see this 3 bedroom home in a quiet part of the Eastern Shore. Only a few miles from RT. 13, the home sits back off the road. Well maintained yard with plenty of room for all your needs and storage. Single car detached garage, two car garage attached to the home. Tiled floors, double fireplace between living and dining, great open floor plan with large living room and kitchen giving you plenty of room for family and entertaining. There is a mother in law suite, called the Cantina, attached to the home, with separate entrance and 500 sq. ft. of living. Gas heat and a window air unit are all you need in that. This property boasts a large pool as well, with depths from 3' to 8'. Being sold as is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $943 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$360/yr (+$30/mo · 38.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,901
• − Property taxes: −$943
• − Insurance: −$794
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,287
• − Management: −$1,287
• − Depreciation: −$4,623
• Taxable loss: −$1,746
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$419
• After-tax cash flow: $1,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Accomack County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100060
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,348
• Composite: 43.05/100
• National rank: #3096
• State rank: #99 of 131 in VA

Livability — Nelsonia

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #352
• US rank: #14000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,118

Population outlook (Accomack County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,072 people
• By 2030: 31,425 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 29,685 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 27,748 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 23,396 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 18,774 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 29% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 13% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 14% Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Accomack

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 43.0% · R 56.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+9.4 2016: R+11.7 2012: R+3.5 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.80%
• Current HPI: 149.3044
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+5.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — ESAR
• 2026-04-26 Listed $158,900 ESAR
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-29 Sold (MLS) $140,000 ESAR
• 2020-08-24 Listed $150,000 ESAR

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $943 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.