309 Jersey Ln

Boerne, TX 78006

$414,600D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,079 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 56 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,767/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,174
• Tax + insurance: −$691
• HOA: −$100
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-779/mo
• Annual: $-9,352/yr
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.06%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $116,088

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-779 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (27.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (33.3% below list).
• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($402k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $277k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#87 in TX, #3,046 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Boerne ISD (town): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #42 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 1090 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 517 units permitted in Kendall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kendall County population projected at +76% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.2% in Boerne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.