309 Jersey Ln · Boerne, TX 78006

$414,600

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,079 sqft · SingleFamily · 56 Days on market

Built 2026 5,357 sqft lot $199/sqft · 24% below area Est $545k · 24% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Available for July 2026! The two-story Sandalwood offers a downstairs bed and bath in addition to an upstairs Game Room, two more secondary bedrooms, and spacious Primary Suite. Includes Granite Countertops and SS Appliances - gas cooking!

Key facts

• 5,357 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-779 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (27.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (33.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (33.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.2% in Boerne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#87 in TX, #3,046 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Boerne ISD (town): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #42 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 1090 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 517 units permitted in Kendall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kendall County population projected at +76% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($402k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,697 (33.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.06%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $544,748
• List price: $414,600
• Delta: -23.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Country Elm Ln	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,079 (0%)	4mo	$424,200	$204	81
133 Merry Calf Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,956 (-6%)	1mo	$526,650	$269	74
308 Rustic Barn Ln	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,949 (-6%)	4mo	$499,930	$257	71
141 Winding Windmill	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,919 (-8%)	1mo	$370,000	$193	71
140 Merry Calf Ln	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,358 (+13%)	2mo	$533,900	$226	69
312 Brown Swiss Rdg	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,951 (-6%)	4mo	$409,640	$210	69
500 Pony Bnd	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,373 (+14%)	5mo	$549,900	$232	68
113 Farming Grv	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (-6%)	2mo	$469,540	$241	68
129 Brown Swiss Rdg	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,373 (+14%)	4mo	$514,900	$217	67
241 Winding Path	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,068 (-0%)	6mo	$375,000	$181	60
141 Country Elm Ln	0.32mi	4/2.5	1,837 (-12%)	5mo	$363,490	$198	60
121 Sage Cyn	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,956 (-6%)	2mo	$338,000	$173	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-113,931
• Equity at exit: $61,818

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-151,048
• Equity at exit: $35,847

Cash invested: $116,088 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78006

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1090
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,767 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,174
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$518 /mo · $6,219/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-779

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,753

Max offer price $301,834

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,650
• Closing costs: $12,438
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
145 Merry Calf Ln Boerne, TX	4.0	3.5	2561	$4,000	$1.56	23d	1	0.15mi
113 Old Ridge Ln Boerne, TX	3.0	2.0	2232	$2,950	$1.32	43d	1	0.22mi
108 Country Elm LN Boerne, TX	4.0	2.0	1951	$2,600	$1.33	23d	1	0.28mi
418 Rustic Grv Boerne, TX	4.0	2.5	2511	$2,825	$1.13	14d	1	0.33mi
301 Rustic Grv Boerne, TX	4.0	3.0	2079	$2,650	$1.27	43d	1	0.39mi
133 Shadow Knls Boerne, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,395	$1.22	17d	1	0.66mi
133 Shadow Knls Boerne, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,395	$1.22	23d	1	0.66mi
233 Sophia Cir Boerne, TX	5.0	2.5	2644	$2,300	$0.87	14d	1	0.73mi
228 Sophia Cir Boerne, TX	5.0	2.5	2528	$2,395	$0.95	43d	1	0.77mi
109 Bethany Way Boerne, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,900	$1.22	17d	1	0.84mi
119 Lina Ln Boerne, TX	4.0	2.0	1693	$2,150	$1.27	23d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $414,600 Pending 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $414,600 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $414,600 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-04-17
   price $414,600 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   Available for July 2026! The two-story Sandalwood offers a downstairs bed and bath in addition to an upstairs Game Room, two more secondary bedrooms, and spacious Primary Suite. Includes Granite Countertops and SS Appliances - gas cooking!

5. 2026-04-08
   price $415,600 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   Available for July 2026! The two-story Sandalwood offers a downstairs bed and bath in addition to an upstairs Game Room, two more secondary bedrooms, and spacious Primary Suite. Includes Granite Countertops and SS Appliances - gas cooking!

6. 2026-04-02
   listed $414,600 New 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   Available for July 2026! The two-story Sandalwood offers a downstairs bed and bath in addition to an upstairs Game Room, two more secondary bedrooms, and spacious Primary Suite. Includes Granite Countertops and SS Appliances - gas cooking!

7. 2026-04-02
   listed $414,600 Active 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   Available for July 2026! The two-story Sandalwood offers a downstairs bed and bath in addition to an upstairs Game Room, two more secondary bedrooms, and spacious Primary Suite. Includes Granite Countertops and SS Appliances - gas cooking!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,224
• − Property taxes: −$6,219
• − Insurance: −$2,073
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,656
• − Management: −$2,656
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$12,061
• Taxable loss: −$16,886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,053
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,299/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boerne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810710
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $85,478
• Composite: 54.47/100
• National rank: #1350
• State rank: #42 of 826 in TX

Livability — Boerne

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #87
• US rank: #3046

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kendall County · 44,560 people
• City population: 44,560
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,560
• Household income: $116,156
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Kendall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,273 people
• By 2030: 64,578 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 81,624 · +45.1%
• By 2050: 99,180 · +76.2%
• By 2075: 144,012 · +155.9%
• By 2100: 177,185 · +214.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Kendall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.3pp no change · 2008: -56.0pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+60.4 2012: R+64.5 2008: R+56.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.83%
• Current HPI: 273.2929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.99%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $414,600 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $415,600 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Listed $414,600 LERA
• 2026-04-02 Listed $414,600 Zillow