4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #61

Birch Bay, WA 98230

$89,950A-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 930 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,611/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax + insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $745/mo
• Annual: $8,941/yr
• Cap rate: 16.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.50%
• DSCR: 2.58
• 1% rule: 1.79%
• Cash to close: $25,186

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $745 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $90k implies a 328% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.