4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #61 · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$99,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 930 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1984 $107/sqft · 15% above area Est $87k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.9/15.0

Listing remarks

Come see this newly renovated home at Ponderosa Estates! This contemporary design has been remodeled from top to bottom starting with a new roof, double pane windows, hot water heater, modern light fixtures, carpet and LVP flooring. Large bathroom has been fully renovated as well. The affordable home boasts an amazing location just minutes from Birch Bay and nestled within a 23 acre park! Take a walk to the beach, cafes, restaurants, parks and trails! And do not miss the amazing sunsets! Welcome home!

Key facts

• Hot water heater
• Double pane windows
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• NEWLY RENOVATED HOME
• NEW ROOF
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• HOT WATER HEATER
• MODERN LIGHT FIXTURES
• LVP FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.3% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 454 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($692 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $100k implies a 376% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $96,951 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.28%
• DSCR: 3.06
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,200
• List price: $99,950
• Delta: 14.62%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #157	0.00mi	2/1.5	924 (-1%)	2mo	$25,000	$27	95
4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #143	0.00mi	2/2.0	924 (-1%)	15mo	$115,000	$124	82
4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #62	0.00mi	1/1.0 (-1)	846 (-9%)	3mo	$87,200	$103	78
4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #87	0.00mi	2/2.0	860 (-8%)	8mo	$165,000	$192	77
4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #84	0.00mi	2/2.0	840 (-10%)	9mo	$20,000	$24	72
4614 Sunburst Dr	0.26mi	2/1.0	960 (+3%)	18mo	$335,000	$349	67
4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #137	0.32mi	1/1.0 (-1)	918 (-1%)	16mo	$207,000	$225	64
4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #22	0.28mi	2/2.0	807 (-13%)	6mo	$310,000	$384	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $123,363
• Equity at exit: $90,043

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.1%
• Equity multiple: 12.06×
• Total profit: $309,585
• Equity at exit: $194,181

Cash invested: $27,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 454
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,106 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $221/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $1,079

Break-even live

Break-even rent $740

Max offer price $99,950

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,136	-5% $1,108	+0% $1,079	+5% $1,051	+10% $1,023
Rent	-10% $913	-5% $996	+0% $1,079	+5% $1,163	+10% $1,246
Rate	-1.0pp $1,130	-0.5pp $1,105	base $1,079	+0.5pp $1,054	+1.0pp $1,027

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,988
• Closing costs: $2,998
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7650 Birch Bay Dr Blaine, WA	3.0	1.5	1036	$2,175	$2.10	14d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   price $99,950
3. 2026-04-03
   listed $115,000 Active
4. 2025-06-20
   soldstatus $21,000 Closed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $221 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $980 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$759/yr (+$63/mo · 343.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,599
• − Property taxes: −$221
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,022
• − Management: −$2,022
• − Depreciation: −$2,908
• Taxable income: $12,000
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,880
• After-tax cash flow: $10,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+376.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $99,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $115,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-20 Sold (MLS) $21,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $221 · -30.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.