4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #61 · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$89,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 930 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1984 Good condition $97/sqft · 45% below area Est $163k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -7.0

Listing remarks

Come see this newly renovated home at Ponderosa Estates! This contemporary design has been remodeled from top to bottom starting with a new roof, new furnace, double pane windows, hot water heater, modern light fixtures, carpet and LVP flooring. Large bathroom has been fully renovated as well. The affordable home boasts an amazing location just minutes from Birch Bay and nestled within a 23 acre park! Take a walk to the beach, cafes, restaurants, parks and trails! And do not miss the amazing sunsets! Welcome home!

Key facts

• New furnace
• Hot water heater
• Double pane windows

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FURNACE
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• HOT WATER HEATER
• MODERN LIGHT FIXTURES
• CARPET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $745 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 2.6% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $90k implies a 328% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $89,950

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.50%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,740
• List price: $89,950
• Delta: -38.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #157	0.12mi	2/1.5	924 (-1%)	4mo	$25,000	$27	88
4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #143	0.12mi	2/2.0	924 (-1%)	17mo	$115,000	$124	76
4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #95	0.38mi	2/1.0	870 (-6%)	0mo	$270,000	$310	71
4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #62	0.12mi	1/1.0 (-1)	846 (-9%)	4mo	$87,200	$103	71
4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #87	0.12mi	2/2.0	860 (-8%)	9mo	$165,000	$192	70
4614 Sunburst Dr	0.22mi	2/1.0	960 (+3%)	20mo	$335,000	$349	68
4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #132	0.45mi	2/2.0	886 (-5%)	1mo	$315,000	$356	66
4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #84	0.12mi	2/2.0	840 (-10%)	10mo	$20,000	$24	66
4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #137	0.42mi	1/1.0 (-1)	918 (-1%)	18mo	$207,000	$225	58
4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #22	0.34mi	2/2.0	807 (-13%)	8mo	$310,000	$384	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.83×
• Total profit: $96,573
• Equity at exit: $81,034

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.82×
• Total profit: $247,337
• Equity at exit: $174,753

Cash invested: $25,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.5 mo (22%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $179,900 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 119 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +2.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 572
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,611 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $221/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $745

Break-even live

Break-even rent $668

Max offer price $89,950

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $796	-5% $771	+0% $745	+5% $720	+10% $694
Rent	-10% $618	-5% $681	+0% $745	+5% $809	+10% $872
Rate	-1.0pp $790	-0.5pp $768	base $745	+0.5pp $722	+1.0pp $698

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,488
• Closing costs: $2,698
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7650 Birch Bay Dr Blaine, WA	3.0	1.5	1036	$2,175	$2.10	62d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Calculated living area 930 square feetListed as residential manufactured homeGreen features: double pane windows
• Financial info: Land lease: $900Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA
• HOA & community: Located in Ponderosa Estates (manufactured home park)Park amenities: BBQs, clubhouse, common area, high-speed internet availablePark approved for saleBus line nearby (route 75B)

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service (PSE)Propane available
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide homeOne levelEntry with tie-down foundationModel VICR 66x14Very good conditionMetal skirting
• Construction: Wood constructionComposition roofManufactured after 6/15/1976
• Exterior features: Wood exteriorPaved lotPatio/porch/deck

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRefrigeratorStove/RangeKitchen with eating space
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: LaminateCarpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom1 bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingElectric and propane energy sourcesGas fireplace
• Interior features: FireplaceCeiling fan(s)Vaulted ceilingsDouble pane windowsPatio/porch/deck
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $89,950 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $89,950 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $89,950 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $89,950 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on marketlisting id $89,950 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $99,950 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $99,950 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   remarks 523-char remark
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $99,950 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $99,950 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $99,950 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $99,950 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $99,950 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $99,950 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $99,950 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $99,950 Active 49 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $99,950 Active 48 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $99,950 Active 47 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $99,950 Active 46 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $99,950 Active 45 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $99,950 Active 44 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $99,950 Active 43 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $99,950 Active 42 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $99,950 Active 41 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    status $99,950 Active 40 DOM
26. 2026-05-13
    status Pending
27. 2026-04-20
    price $99,950
28. 2026-04-03
    listed $115,000 Active
29. 2025-06-20
    soldstatus $21,000 Closed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $221 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $882 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$661/yr (+$55/mo · 299.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,039
• − Property taxes: −$221
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,547
• − Management: −$1,547
• − Depreciation: −$2,617
• Taxable income: $7,913
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,899
• After-tax cash flow: $7,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,650–$13,950 screening

This newly renovated mobile home in Birch Bay, WA, offers a contemporary design with modern updates and a prime location. It's move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Trim and mulch landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blaine Elementary School Middle Blaine Middle School High Blaine High School

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 240,408 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Calculated living area 930 square feetListed as residential manufactured homeGreen features: double pane windows
• Financial info: Land lease: $900Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHA
• HOA & community: Located in Ponderosa Estates (manufactured home park)Park amenities: BBQs, clubhouse, common area, high-speed internet availablePark approved for saleBus line nearby (route 75B)

Exterior

• Parking: Uncovered parking
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service (PSE)Propane available
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide homeOne levelEntry with tie-down foundationModel VICR 66x14Very good conditionMetal skirting
• Construction: Wood constructionComposition roofManufactured after 6/15/1976
• Exterior features: Wood exteriorPaved lotPatio/porch/deck

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRefrigeratorStove/RangeKitchen with eating space
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: LaminateCarpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom1 bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingElectric and propane energy sourcesGas fireplace
• Interior features: FireplaceCeiling fan(s)Vaulted ceilingsDouble pane windowsPatio/porch/deck
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

+376.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-07 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $99,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $115,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-20 Sold (MLS) $21,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $221 · -30.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.