4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #61 · Birch Bay, WA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $604 – $1,122
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 81°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Unhealthy air days now
- 7 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 10 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- Appreciation +7.5/10.0
- Schools +4.7/10.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +3.3/5.0
- Livability +3.1/5.0
- Manufactured-home adj. -7.0
$84,950
4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #61 · Birch Bay, WA 98230
2 bd · 1.0 ba · 930 sqft · Manufactured
public records
Manufactured home
Built 1984
$91/sqft
· 49% below area
Est $166k · 49% under
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Come see this newly renovated home at Ponderosa Estates! This contemporary design has been remodeled from top to bottom starting with a new roof, new furnace, double pane windows, hot water heater, modern light fixtures, carpet and LVP flooring. Large bathroom has been fully renovated as well. The affordable home boasts an amazing location just minutes from Birch Bay and nestled within a 23 acre park! Take a walk to the beach, cafes, restaurants, parks and trails! And do not miss the amazing sunsets! Welcome home!
Key facts
- New furnace
- Hot water heater
- Double pane windows
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $694 ($8k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
- Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 2.9% in Birch Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, amenities F.
- Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Blaine Elementary School (463 students, 54% FRL); Blaine Middle School (459 students, 54% FRL); Blaine High School (609 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 33% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 650 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
- Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- Current owner paid $21k; list at $85k implies a 305% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Recommended offer
$84,950
Questions for the listing agent
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.78% ✓
- Cap rate
- 16.10%
- Cash-on-cash
- 35.02%
- DSCR
- 2.56
- GRM
- 4.7
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $166,031
- List price
- $84,950
- Delta
- -48.83%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 10 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #157 | 0.12mi | 2/1.5 | 924 (-1%) | 6mo | $25,000 | $27 | 87 |
| 4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #143 | 0.12mi | 2/2.0 | 924 (-1%) | 18mo | $115,000 | $124 | 74 |
| 4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #95 | 0.38mi | 2/1.0 | 870 (-6%) | 2mo | $270,000 | $310 | 70 |
| 4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #62 | 0.12mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 846 (-9%) | 6mo | $87,200 | $103 | 70 |
| 4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #87 | 0.12mi | 2/2.0 | 860 (-8%) | 11mo | $165,000 | $192 | 69 |
| 4614 Sunburst Dr | 0.22mi | 2/1.0 | 960 (+3%) | 21mo | $335,000 | $349 | 67 |
| 4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #132 | 0.45mi | 2/2.0 | 886 (-5%) | 3mo | $315,000 | $356 | 65 |
| 4672 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #84 | 0.12mi | 2/2.0 | 840 (-10%) | 12mo | $20,000 | $24 | 64 |
| 4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #137 | 0.42mi | 1/1.0 (-1) | 918 (-1%) | 19mo | $207,000 | $225 | 57 |
| 4751 Birch Bay Lynden Rd #22 | 0.34mi | 2/2.0 | 807 (-13%) | 9mo | $310,000 | $384 | 50 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- 51.2%
- Equity multiple
- 4.81×
- Total profit
- $90,597
- Equity at exit
- $76,530
10-year hold
- IRR
- 44.9%
- Equity multiple
- 10.77×
- Total profit
- $232,275
- Equity at exit
- $165,039
Cash invested: $23,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 28 Tenant-Leaning
- State Washington
- 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.
Seller's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 2 active · 7 under contract
- Months of supply
- 2.0 mo (50%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $174,450 ($181/sqft)
- This list price
- lowest-priced of the active set
- ARV vs active asking
- -1.5% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 98230
- Home prices YoY
- 14.0%
- Rents YoY
- 3.1%
- Active inventory
- 650
- Price-to-rent
- 4.7×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $1,511 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$445
- Tax from tax record
- −$18 /mo · $221/yr
- Insurance
- −$35
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent leased land?
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$317
- Net cashflow
- $694
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$632
Max offer price
$84,950
Occupancy floor
49%
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $742 | -5% $718 | +0% $694 | +5% $670 | +10% $646 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $575 | -5% $634 | +0% $694 | +5% $754 | +10% $813 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $737 | -0.5pp $716 | base $694 | +0.5pp $672 | +1.0pp $650 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $21,238
- Closing costs
- $2,548
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 4 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7954 Birch Bay Dr Blaine, WA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 650 | $1,450 | $2.23 | 6d | 1 | 0.73mi |
| 4973 Cottonwood Ct #8 Blaine, WA | 2.0 | 1.0 | 550 | $2,850 | $5.18 | 0d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 7650 Birch Bay Dr Blaine, WA | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1036 | $2,175 | $2.10 | 109d | 1 | 1.45mi |
| 7650 Birch Bay Dr Blaine, WA | 2.0 | 1.5 | 962 | $1,800 | $1.87 | 0d | 1 | 1.45mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Calculated living area approximately 930 square feetSenior exemption: no
- Financial info
- Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional, FHALand lease amount applies
- HOA & community
- Located in Ponderosa EstatesManufactured home park amenities include BBQs, clubhouse, common area, and high-speed internet availabilityPark approved for saleLand lease applies
Exterior
- Parking
- Uncovered parking
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewerElectric and propane energy sourcesPSE power provider
- Home design
- Manufactured home (single wide)One levelTie down foundationMade by VICR, model 66x14Very good condition
- Construction
- Wood constructionComposition roofMetal skirting
- Exterior features
- Wood exteriorPaved lotPatio/porch/deck
Interior
- Kitchen
- Stove/RangeRefrigeratorDishwasher
- Bedrooms
- 2 bedrooms
- Flooring
- LaminateCarpet
- Bathrooms
- 1 full bathroom1 bathtub
- Heating & cooling
- Forced air heating
- Interior features
- Fireplace (gas)Vaulted ceilingsCeiling fan(s)Double-pane windowsPatio/porch/deck
- Laundry & utility
- WasherDryer
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-21days on market $84,950 Active
-
2026-09-20days on market $84,950 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $84,950 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $84,950 Active 45 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $84,950 Active 44 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $84,950 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $84,950 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $84,950 Active 41 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $84,950 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $84,950 Active 39 DOM
-
2026-09-05pricedays on market $84,950 Active 33 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $89,950 Active 32 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $89,950 Active 31 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $89,950 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $89,950 Active 27 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $89,950 Active 26 DOM
-
2026-08-28days on market $89,950 Active 25 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $89,950 Active 24 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $89,950 Active 22 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $89,950 Active 21 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $89,950 Active 20 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $89,950 Active 19 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $89,950 Active 18 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $89,950 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $89,950 Active 16 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $89,950 Active 15 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $89,950 Active 14 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $89,950 Active 13 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $89,950 Active 12 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $89,950 Active 11 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $89,950 Active 10 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $89,950 Active 9 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $89,950 Active 8 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $89,950 Active 7 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $89,950 Active 6 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $89,950 Active 5 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $89,950 Active 4 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $89,950 Active 3 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $89,950 Active 2 DOM
-
2026-08-03pricedays on market $89,950 Active 1 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $99,950 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $99,950 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-07-30remarks 523-char remark
-
2026-07-29days on market $99,950 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-07-27days on market $99,950 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-07-25days on market $99,950 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $99,950 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $99,950 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $99,950 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $99,950 Active 51 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $221 · $18/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $833 · $69/mo
- Expected delta
- +$612/yr (+$51/mo · 276.8%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $18,128
- − Mortgage interest
- −$4,759
- − Property taxes
- −$221
- − Insurance
- −$425
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,450
- − Management
- −$1,450
- − Depreciation
- −$2,471
- Taxable income
- $7,352
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,764
- After-tax cash flow
- $6,565/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos
80/100
Cosmetic rehab
Est. rehab $4,650–$13,950 screening
This newly renovated mobile home in Birch Bay, WA, offers a contemporary design with modern updates and a prime location. It's move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal maintenance required.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
- Both Trim and mulch landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Blaine Elementary School
Middle
Blaine Middle School
High
Blaine High School
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Blaine School District
- NCES district ID
- 5300570
- Math proficiency
- 49% ▼ -1.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 55% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $57,085
- Composite
- 47.05/100
- National rank
- #5128
- State rank
- #120 of 291 in WA
C
Composite livability gradescore 62/100
Livability — Birch Bay
- Score
- 62/100
- State rank
- #406
- US rank
- #16180
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living D+
Crime C+
Employment C+
Housing A
Health & safety D
User ratings A+
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Birch Bay, WA
- County
- Whatcom County · 240,408 people
- Metro
- Bellingham, WA
- Population (ZIP)
- 18,744
- Household income
- $86,623
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 9% of renters
Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 240,408 people
- By 2030
- 254,667 · +5.9%
- By 2040
- 281,365 · +17.0%
- By 2050
- 307,592 · +27.9%
- By 2075
- 375,576 · +56.2%
- By 2100
- 421,637 · +75.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (77%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 5%
- Common ancestry
- Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 13% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom
- 2024 margin
- Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 106.58%
- Current HPI
- 868.68
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 3.10%
- Metro
- Bellingham, WA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 4.65%
- F500 in state
- 22
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Retail | 2 | $269B |
|
||
| Technology / Retail | 1 | $638B |
|
||
| Technology | 1 | $245B |
|
||
| Telecommunications | 1 | $38B |
|
||
| Food / Beverage | 1 | $36B |
|
||
| Automotive / Trucks | 1 | $34B |
|
||
Price history
+328.3% since first listed2 events — show timeline
- 2026-08-03 Listed $89,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-06-20 Sold (MLS) $21,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
Property tax history
+2.9%/yrLatest (2026): $221 · -30.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…