307 Gilbert Dr

Vivian, LA 71082

$124,500D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,238 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Pending · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,037/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$653
• Tax + insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $34/mo
• Annual: $404/yr
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.16%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $34,860

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $124k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($404/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (16.7% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($861 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#370 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.