307 Gilbert Dr · Vivian, LA 71082

$124,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,238 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1969 0.25 ac lot Est $119k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming home in Peaceful community! 4 bedroom 2 full bathrooms with fresh on trend colors throughout. New renovations in 2015 include large utility room and pantry, added full size hall bathroom, all new kitchen cabinets, flooring and ROOF. Carport enclosed in 2018 to create 4th bedroom. Relax outdoors in your pool with privacy of no backyard neighbors and fully fenced in yard. Extra storage with shed that was installed in 2019. Convenient to I-49, North Caddo Medical Center, schools and grocery stores. You don't want to miss this one! Call today for your private showing!!!

Key facts

• 0.25-acre lot
• Solid layout
• Well-maintained hvac

Tags

• SOLID LAYOUT
• MIX OF FLOORING
• FORMICA COUNTERTOPS
• 7-YEAR-OLD ROOF
• WELL-MAINTAINED HVAC
• 0.25-ACRE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($404/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#370 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($861 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $92k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,651 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.16%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,848
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
317 Gilbert Dr	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,167 (-6%)	15mo	$67,000	$57	74
612 S Cypress	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-3%)	1mo	$115,000	$96	72
336 Redbud Ln	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,174 (-5%)	23mo	$129,000	$110	61
512 W Nevada Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,078 (-13%)	11mo	$126,500	$117	61
310 W Tennessee Ave	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,222 (-1%)	22mo	$19,900	$16	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $18,180
• Equity at exit: $57,118

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $60,376
• Equity at exit: $88,920

Cash invested: $34,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71082

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,037 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$653
• Tax from tax record: −$80 /mo · $965/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $994

Max offer price $124,500

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $104	-5% $69	+0% $34	+5% $-2	+10% $-37
Rent	-10% $-48	-5% $-7	+0% $34	+5% $75	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $96	-0.5pp $65	base $34	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,125
• Closing costs: $3,735
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-05
   price $124,500
3. 2026-02-23
   listed $134,500 Active
4. 2021-11-29
   soldstatus $92,000
5. 2021-11-19
   soldstatus Sold 581-char remark

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   Charming home in Peaceful community! 4 bedroom 2 full bathrooms with fresh on trend colors throughout. New renovations in 2015 include large utility room and pantry, added full size hall bathroom, all new kitchen cabinets, flooring and ROOF. Carport enclosed in 2018 to create 4th bedroom. Relax outdoors in your pool with privacy of no backyard neighbors and fully fenced in yard. Extra storage with shed that was installed in 2019. Convenient to I-49, North Caddo Medical Center, schools and grocery stores. You don't want to miss this one! Call today for your private showing!!!

6. 2021-10-05
   status Pending 581-char remark

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   Charming home in Peaceful community! 4 bedroom 2 full bathrooms with fresh on trend colors throughout. New renovations in 2015 include large utility room and pantry, added full size hall bathroom, all new kitchen cabinets, flooring and ROOF. Carport enclosed in 2018 to create 4th bedroom. Relax outdoors in your pool with privacy of no backyard neighbors and fully fenced in yard. Extra storage with shed that was installed in 2019. Convenient to I-49, North Caddo Medical Center, schools and grocery stores. You don't want to miss this one! Call today for your private showing!!!

7. 2021-09-16
   listed $89,900 Active 581-char remark

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   Charming home in Peaceful community! 4 bedroom 2 full bathrooms with fresh on trend colors throughout. New renovations in 2015 include large utility room and pantry, added full size hall bathroom, all new kitchen cabinets, flooring and ROOF. Carport enclosed in 2018 to create 4th bedroom. Relax outdoors in your pool with privacy of no backyard neighbors and fully fenced in yard. Extra storage with shed that was installed in 2019. Convenient to I-49, North Caddo Medical Center, schools and grocery stores. You don't want to miss this one! Call today for your private showing!!!

8. 2021-09-16
   historical

   Show marketing remark (581 chars)

   Charming home in Peaceful community! 4 bedroom 2 full bathrooms with fresh on trend colors throughout. New renovations in 2015 include large utility room and pantry, added full size hall bathroom, all new kitchen cabinets, flooring and ROOF. Carport enclosed in 2018 to create 4th bedroom. Relax outdoors in your pool with privacy of no backyard neighbors and fully fenced in yard. Extra storage with shed that was installed in 2019. Convenient to I-49, North Caddo Medical Center, schools and grocery stores. You don't want to miss this one! Call today for your private showing!!!

9. 2021-09-04
   price $89,900
10. 2021-07-30
    listed $95,000 Active
11. 2007-11-26
    soldstatus
12. 2007-06-08
    soldstatus
13. 2000-06-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $965 · $80/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $965 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,974
• − Property taxes: −$965
• − Insurance: −$622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$995
• − Management: −$995
• − Depreciation: −$3,622
• Taxable loss: −$1,735
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$416
• After-tax cash flow: $820/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $39,227
• Composite: 22.23/100
• National rank: #8148
• State rank: #53 of 98 in LA

Livability — Vivian

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #370
• US rank: #23598

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vivian, LA
• City population: 3,774
• Population (ZIP): 3,774

Population outlook (Caddo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 243,190 people
• By 2030: 237,231 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 222,502 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 206,516 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 165,706 · -31.9%
• By 2100: 122,262 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 35% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Caddo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.6% · R 47.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: 4.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.6 2020: D+6.8 2016: D+4.2 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Current HPI: 76.973
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+31.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $124,500 NTREIS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $134,500 NTREIS
• 2021-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-19 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-10-05 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-09-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2021-09-16 Listed $89,900 NTREIS
• 2021-09-04 Price Changed $89,900 NTREIS
• 2021-07-30 Listed $95,000 NTREIS
• 2007-11-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $965 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.