2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
820 sqft ·
Built 1990
· Condo
· Active
· 20 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$8,806/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$5,506
Tax + insurance
−$1,420
HOA
−$988
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,849
Net cashflow
$-958/mo
Annual
$-11,492/yr
Cap rate
5.20%
Cash-on-cash
-3.91%
DSCR
0.83
1% rule
0.84%
Cash to close
$294,000
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $1.05M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-958 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $881k (16.1% below list).
It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.03M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $881k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $112k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $105k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.4%/yr); 225 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,467 units permitted in New York County in 2024 (4,463 in 5+ unit buildings).
New York County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$180k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $8,806/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($161k/yr) (locally 2000% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-B9EWQ9ES79J3DP
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29