3817 Shire Valley Dr

Missouri City, TX 77459

$194,999D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,587 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Active · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,037/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$481
• HOA: −$280
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-175/mo
• Annual: $-2,099/yr
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.84%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (15.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $164k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lexington Creek El (math 45% / reading 53%, grade D, #926 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 521 students, 42% FRL); Dulles Middle (math 39% / reading 48%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 1,359 students, 56% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.6% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?