3817 Shire Valley Dr · Missouri City, TX 77459

$194,999

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,587 sqft · Condo public records · 121 Days on market

Built 2005 $280/mo HOA · 14% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautiful two-story condominium located in a quiet, boutique community offering low-maintenance living. This home features three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms with tile and wood flooring throughout, and no carpet. Fresh paint enhances the bright, modern feel, along with updated ceiling fans and a stylish chandelier. The kitchen comes fully equipped with all appliances and a 2026 updated faucet. A washer and dryer are included for added convenience. The spacious primary suite offers a private balcony and two closets, creating a comfortable retreat. The HOA maintains the exterior of the building and common areas, eliminating lawn and exterior maintenance for the homeow

Key facts

• Tennis court
• Private balcony
• Swimming pool

Tags

• TWO STORY CONDOMINIUM
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• SWIMMING POOL
• TENNIS COURT
• ZONED TO EXCELLENT SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Sterling Association services; Monthly HOA: $280; HOA covers maintenance of grounds and structures, recreation facilities, sewer, trash, and water; Community clubhouse, community pool, tennis courts, trash service, grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story building layout (interior shows living spaces on first and second levels); Full ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2005
• Exterior features: Balcony; Patio/porch: balcony

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (Second level) — 20 x 15; Bedroom (Second level) — 11 x 10; Bedroom (Second level) — 11 x 10; Office (Second level); Living room (First level); Utility room (First level)
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Balcony; Double vanities; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Pantry / walk-in pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room on first level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (15.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.6% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lexington Creek El (math 45% / reading 53%, grade D, #926 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 521 students, 42% FRL); Dulles Middle (math 39% / reading 48%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 1,359 students, 56% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 33% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1229 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,098 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.84%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-37,296
• Equity at exit: $40,897

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-58,591
• Equity at exit: $37,880

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1229
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,037 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$280
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,258

Max offer price $164,098

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-65	-5% $-120	+0% $-175	+5% $-230	+10% $-285
Rent	-10% $-336	-5% $-255	+0% $-175	+5% $-94	+10% $-14
Rate	-1.0pp $-77	-0.5pp $-125	base $-175	+0.5pp $-225	+1.0pp $-277

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1620 Good Day Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1364	$1,790	$1.31	45d	1	0.07mi
1547 Revolution Way Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1680	$2,300	$1.37	14d	1	0.14mi
1800 FM 1092 Rd Missouri City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	889	$1,674	$1.88	0d	30	0.16mi
1420 Revolution Way Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1649	$2,250	$1.36	45d	1	0.18mi
635 Summer Park Dr Stafford, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,592	$1.47	45d	1	0.59mi
516 Stafford Springs Ave Stafford, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,494	$1.38	0d	10	0.60mi
812 Hollyhock Dr Stafford, TX	4.0	2.0	2082	$2,200	$1.06	22d	1	0.75mi
2120 Bermuda Dunes Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,200	$1.05	26d	1	0.95mi
22 Chapparal Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,000	$1.33	45d	1	0.98mi
630 Colony Lake Estates Dr Stafford, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	876	$1,601	$1.83	0d	6	1.03mi
1000 Farrah Ln Unit 1033 Stafford, TX	3.0	2.0	1219	$1,679	$1.38	45d	1	1.12mi
1000 Farrah Ln Unit 3112 Stafford, TX	3.0	2.0	1219	$1,656	$1.36	0d	1	1.12mi
1000 Farrah Ln Unit 3174 Stafford, TX	3.0	2.0	1219	$1,696	$1.39	12d	1	1.12mi
1201 Dulles Ave Stafford, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,698	$1.77	0d	11	1.16mi
2608 Grand Plantation Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2150	$2,450	$1.14	14d	1	1.18mi
1020 Brand Ln Unit 1077 Stafford, TX	2.0	2.0	1151	$1,606	$1.40	45d	1	1.20mi
1020 Brand Ln Unit 2148 Stafford, TX	2.0	2.0	1151	$1,466	$1.27	0d	1	1.20mi
1020 Brand Ln Apt 424 Stafford, TX	2.0	2.0	1151	$1,441	$1.25	7d	1	1.20mi
1020 Brand Ln Unit 3174 Stafford, TX	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,851	$1.44	0d	1	1.20mi
1020 Brand Ln Unit 2174 Stafford, TX	2.0	2.0	1151	$1,476	$1.28	12d	1	1.20mi
1020 Brand Ln Unit 3112 Stafford, TX	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,800	$1.40	0d	1	1.20mi
1020 Brand Ln Unit 2112 Stafford, TX	2.0	2.0	1151	$1,425	$1.24	0d	1	1.20mi
1020 Brand Ln Unit 3174 Stafford, TX	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,840	$1.43	12d	1	1.20mi
1020 Brand Ln Unit 1053 Stafford, TX	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,822	$1.42	45d	1	1.20mi
1103 Dulles Ave #801 Stafford, TX	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,700	$1.52	24d	1	1.24mi
1025 Dulles Ave Unit 2174 Stafford, TX	2.0	2.0	1102	$1,482	$1.34	12d	1	1.34mi
1025 Dulles Ave Unit 1058 Stafford, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,844	$1.34	45d	1	1.34mi
1025 Dulles Ave Unit 424 Stafford, TX	2.0	2.0	1102	$1,458	$1.32	7d	1	1.34mi
1025 Dulles Ave Unit 3148 Stafford, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,861	$1.35	0d	1	1.34mi
1025 Dulles Ave Unit 1062 Stafford, TX	2.0	2.0	1102	$1,548	$1.40	45d	1	1.34mi
1025 Dulles Ave Unit 2148 Stafford, TX	2.0	2.0	1102	$1,483	$1.35	0d	1	1.34mi
1025 Dulles Ave Unit 3174 Stafford, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,912	$1.39	0d	1	1.34mi
1025 Dulles Ave Unit 425 Stafford, TX	2.0	2.0	1102	$1,442	$1.31	0d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $280 · $3,360/yr
• Likely covers: exterior maint.
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $194,999 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,999 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,999 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,999 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $194,999 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,999 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,999 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,999 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    status Active
16. 2026-04-15
    status Pending
17. 2026-04-12
    status Pending
18. 2026-04-04
    price $199,999
19. 2026-01-17
    listed $205,000 Active
20. 2026-01-05
    historical
21. 2025-09-12
    price $214,900
22. 2025-08-10
    listed $219,900 Active
23. 2018-06-19
    soldstatus
24. 2018-06-18
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2018-05-22
    status Pending
26. 2018-05-17
    status Option Pending
27. 2018-05-17
    status Pending
28. 2018-05-06
    status Option Pending
29. 2018-04-09
    price $149,995
30. 2018-03-13
    price $151,000
31. 2017-12-20
    listed $154,000 Active
32. 2006-02-06
    historical
33. 2006-01-23
    listed $1,175

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,800 · $400/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,800 · $400/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,955
• − Management: −$1,955
• − HOA: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$5,202
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,248
• After-tax cash flow: $-851/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+16921.2% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $199,999 HARMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $214,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-10 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2018-06-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-06-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-04-09 Price Changed $149,995 HARMLS
• 2018-03-13 Price Changed $151,000 HARMLS
• 2017-12-20 Listed $154,000 HARMLS
• 2006-02-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-01-23 Listed $1,175 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,800 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.