301 Ash Ave

Morrison, IL 61270

$152,900D-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,304 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,295/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$802
• Tax + insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $3/mo
• Annual: $42/yr
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $42,812

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $153k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3 ($42/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (15.3% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $129k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#85 in IL, #1,376 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Morrison CUSD 6 (town): math 22% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #292 of 620 in IL (top 47%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Northside School (252 students, 0% FRL); Morrison Jr High School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #364 of 665 statewide, top 56%, 220 students, 0% FRL); Morrison High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #218 of 693 statewide, top 35%, 296 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 32% district-wide (32 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Whiteside County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Whiteside County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $87k; list at $153k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.6% in Morrison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.