2551 Jerusalem Ave Unit 2S

North Bellmore, NY 11710

$399,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 845 sqft · Built 1965 · Condo · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$665
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$714
• Net cashflow: $-71/mo
• Annual: $-857/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.77%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-857/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $389k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $340k (14.8% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $340k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#158 in NY, #2,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• North Bellmore Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #151 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Saw Mill Road School (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C+, #833 of 2,108 statewide, top 40%, 686 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.8% in North Bellmore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.