2551 Jerusalem Ave Unit 2S · North Bellmore, NY 11710

$399,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 845 sqft · Condo · 16 Days on market

Built 1965

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Sun-drenched 2-bedroom, 1-bath second-floor co-op ideally located near major parkways, shopping, and transportation. This well-proportioned residence features a bright living room with oversized windows, an eat-in kitchen, a king-sized primary bedroom, and a spacious second bedroom. Multiple closets provide excellent storage throughout. With a strong layout and great bones, this home offers an excellent opportunity to update and customize to your taste. A smart buy in today’s competitive market.

Key facts

• Second-floor co-op
• Transportation
• Bright living room

Tags

• SECOND-FLOOR CO-OP
• MAJOR PARKWAYS
• SHOPPING
• TRANSPORTATION
• BRIGHT LIVING ROOM
• OVERSIZED WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-857/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $389k (2.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $340k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $340k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 1.8% in North Bellmore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#158 in NY, #2,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• North Bellmore Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #151 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Saw Mill Road School (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C+, #833 of 2,108 statewide, top 40%, 686 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 141 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($393k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $340,000 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.77%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-69,151
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-65,863
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11710

• Active inventory: 141
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$499 /mo · $5,985/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$714
• Net cashflow: $-71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,490

Max offer price $388,668

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1973 Bellmore Ave North Bellmore, NY	3.0	2.0	1000	$3,400	$3.40	1d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-02-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-12
   price $399,000
3. 2026-02-11
   listed $399 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$5,985
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,264
• − Management: −$3,264
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$7,665
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,840
• After-tax cash flow: $983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Bellmore Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3620940
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $108,596
• Composite: 59.15/100
• National rank: #950
• State rank: #151 of 590 in NY

Livability — North Bellmore

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #2447

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Bellmore, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,459

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 5% Romanian 5% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -733.80%
• Current HPI: 294.8496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-11 Listed $399 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid