838 S Erie St

Toledo, OH 43609

$119,900B-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,330 sqft · Built 1887 · SingleFamily · Active · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,367/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $306/mo
• Annual: $3,672/yr
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.94%
• DSCR: 1.49
• 1% rule: 1.14%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $899 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1887 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.8%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $120k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 7.8% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 7.6% in Toledo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1887 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.