838 S Erie St · Toledo, OH 43609

$119,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,330 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1887 4,600 sqft lot $51/sqft · 133% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4 Bedroom 2 Bathroom Duplex is in good condition near expressways and not far from downtown. Both units are well-taken care of with good tenants. This is a good cash flowing property and would make for a good addition to a portfolio.

Key facts

• 4,600 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1887

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 7.6% in Toledo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.8%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $899 appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 7.8% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $120k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1887 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1887 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.94%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $51,525
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: 132.70%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
209 Jervis St	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,340 (+0%)	2mo	$8,500	$4	78
308 Crittenden Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,470 (+6%)	8mo	$104,500	$42	58
325 Chapin St	0.51mi	4/1.0	1,989 (-15%)	4mo	$60,000	$30	45
704 Boalt St	0.42mi	4/1.5	2,054 (-12%)	18mo	$68,200	$33	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.75% appreciation · 7.8% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $27,177
• Equity at exit: $39,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $100,805
• Equity at exit: $51,144

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43609

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,138/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $979

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1021 Walbridge Ave Toledo, OH	3.0	1.0	1592	$975	$0.61	43d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,900 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-04
    status Active 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    This 4 Bedroom 2 Bathroom Duplex is in good condition near expressways and not far from downtown. Both units are well-taken care of with good tenants. This is a good cash flowing property and would make for a good addition to a portfolio.

17. 2026-04-23
    historical Contingent 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    This 4 Bedroom 2 Bathroom Duplex is in good condition near expressways and not far from downtown. Both units are well-taken care of with good tenants. This is a good cash flowing property and would make for a good addition to a portfolio.

18. 2026-03-05
    listed $119,900 Active 238-char remark

    Show marketing remark (238 chars)

    This 4 Bedroom 2 Bathroom Duplex is in good condition near expressways and not far from downtown. Both units are well-taken care of with good tenants. This is a good cash flowing property and would make for a good addition to a portfolio.

19. 2022-10-18
    status Pending 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    A 2 story Duplex with 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, Kitchen, Dining Room, Living Room & Large Porches in each unit. Basement & Garage.TERMS: $5,000 down within 24 hours of sale balance due at closing. 10% buyer’s premium added to final bid price to determine final contract price.

20. 2022-10-18
    soldstatus $42,900 Closed 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    A 2 story Duplex with 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, Kitchen, Dining Room, Living Room & Large Porches in each unit. Basement & Garage.TERMS: $5,000 down within 24 hours of sale balance due at closing. 10% buyer’s premium added to final bid price to determine final contract price.

21. 2022-09-30
    historical Contingent 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    A 2 story Duplex with 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, Kitchen, Dining Room, Living Room & Large Porches in each unit. Basement & Garage.TERMS: $5,000 down within 24 hours of sale balance due at closing. 10% buyer’s premium added to final bid price to determine final contract price.

22. 2022-08-24
    listed $42,900 Active 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    A 2 story Duplex with 2 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, Kitchen, Dining Room, Living Room & Large Porches in each unit. Basement & Garage.TERMS: $5,000 down within 24 hours of sale balance due at closing. 10% buyer’s premium added to final bid price to determine final contract price.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,138 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,504 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$366/yr (+$31/mo · 32.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,138
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,312
• − Management: −$1,312
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $1,833
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$440
• After-tax cash flow: $3,232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toledo City
• NCES district ID: 3904490
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $32,137
• Composite: 15.76/100
• National rank: #9276
• State rank: #634 of 656 in OH

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toledo, OH
• County: Lucas County · 380,724 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 21,404
• Household income: $42,313
• Rent vs Own: 55.7% rent · 44.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1603.0

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.75%
• Current HPI: 235.2515
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.80%
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+179.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — NORIS
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — NORIS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $119,900 NORIS
• 2022-10-18 Pending — NORIS
• 2022-10-18 Sold (MLS) $42,900 NORIS
• 2022-09-30 Contingent — NORIS
• 2022-08-24 Listed $42,900 NORIS

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,138 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.