353 Conastoga Rd

Road Runner, TX 76272

$193,000C

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 1,193 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,725/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,012
• Tax + insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $122/mo
• Annual: $1,465/yr
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.19%
• DSCR: 1.19
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $54,040

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $193k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (10.6% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pilot Point ISD (town): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #303 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pilot Point El (math 44% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 516 students, 56% FRL); Pilot Point Selz Middle (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 330 students, 59% FRL); Pilot Point H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 452 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 190 units permitted in Cooke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.