353 Conastoga Rd · Road Runner, TX 76272

$193,000

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 1,193 sqft · SingleFamily · 73 Days on market

Built 2025 0.45 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover a unique investment opportunity in Valley View! This 2025 mobile home sits on a spacious 0.45-acre lot just outside city limits, offering both privacy and flexibility with fewer restrictions. Featuring 5 bedrooms and 5 bathrooms, this property is suited for income producing potential. It is currently operating as a successful investment property, with each room rented individually on month-to-month leases, generating approximately $2,600 in monthly income. Whether you’re looking to expand your rental portfolio or transition into a multi-use living space, this property offers immediate cash flow and long-term potential. With ample outdoor space and a modern layout, the possibilities here are endless. Don’t miss your chance to own a turnkey investment in a growing area!

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Turnkey investment
• 0.45 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• INCOME PRODUCING POTENTIAL
• SUCCESSFUL INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• TURNKEY INVESTMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $193k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pilot Point ISD (town): math 41% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #303 of 826 in TX (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pilot Point El (math 44% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 516 students, 56% FRL); Pilot Point Selz Middle (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #660 of 1,662 statewide, top 41%, 330 students, 59% FRL); Pilot Point H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 452 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 190 units permitted in Cooke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $54k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,503 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.19%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $112,856
• Equity at exit: $173,870

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.04×
• Total profit: $326,167
• Equity at exit: $374,957

Cash invested: $54,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76272

• Home prices YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,725 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,012
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $981/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,571

Max offer price $193,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $231	-5% $177	+0% $122	+5% $67	+10% $13
Rent	-10% $-14	-5% $54	+0% $122	+5% $190	+10% $258
Rate	-1.0pp $219	-0.5pp $171	base $122	+0.5pp $72	+1.0pp $21

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,250
• Closing costs: $5,790
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $193,000 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $193,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $193,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $193,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $193,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $193,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $193,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $193,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $193,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $193,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $193,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $193,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $193,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $193,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-30
    price $193,000 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Discover a unique investment opportunity in Valley View! This 2025 mobile home sits on a spacious 0.45-acre lot just outside city limits, offering both privacy and flexibility with fewer restrictions. Featuring 5 bedrooms and 5 bathrooms, this property is suited for income producing potential. It is currently operating as a successful investment property, with each room rented individually on month-to-month leases, generating approximately $2,600 in monthly income. Whether you’re looking to expand your rental portfolio or transition into a multi-use living space, this property offers immediate cash flow and long-term potential. With ample outdoor space and a modern layout, the possibilities here are endless. Don’t miss your chance to own a turnkey investment in a growing area!

16. 2026-04-09
    listed $200,000 Active 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Discover a unique investment opportunity in Valley View! This 2025 mobile home sits on a spacious 0.45-acre lot just outside city limits, offering both privacy and flexibility with fewer restrictions. Featuring 5 bedrooms and 5 bathrooms, this property is suited for income producing potential. It is currently operating as a successful investment property, with each room rented individually on month-to-month leases, generating approximately $2,600 in monthly income. Whether you’re looking to expand your rental portfolio or transition into a multi-use living space, this property offers immediate cash flow and long-term potential. With ample outdoor space and a modern layout, the possibilities here are endless. Don’t miss your chance to own a turnkey investment in a growing area!

17. 2026-01-09
    soldstatus
18. 2024-10-10
    soldstatus
19. 2013-03-14
    soldstatus
20. 2012-07-26
    soldstatus
21. 2008-06-27
    soldstatus
22. 2005-11-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $981 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,532 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,551/yr (+$213/mo · 260.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,811
• − Property taxes: −$981
• − Insurance: −$1,762
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,656
• − Management: −$1,656
• − Depreciation: −$5,615
• Taxable loss: −$1,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$427
• After-tax cash flow: $1,892/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pilot Point ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834920
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $57,332
• Composite: 36.85/100
• National rank: #4555
• State rank: #303 of 826 in TX

Livability — Road Runner

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Road Runner, TX
• Population (ZIP): 4,947

Population outlook (Cooke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,965 people
• By 2030: 39,974 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 39,772 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 39,258 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 37,262 · -6.8%
• By 2100: 33,363 · -16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 17%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 18% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cooke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.9) · D 16.2% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -58.7pp · 2024: -66.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.9 2020: R+65.2 2016: R+68.1 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+58.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.32%
• Current HPI: 326.29
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $193,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-07-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-06-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $981 · -26.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.