38833 Terri Ln

Oakhurst, CA 93644

$215,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · Built 1967 · Other · Active · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,953/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $57/mo
• Annual: $684/yr
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.14%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($684/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (9.2% below list).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#911 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Oakhurst Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #917 of 1,571 statewide, top 60%, 352 students, 64% FRL); Oak Creek Intermediate (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 204 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.4% in Oakhurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.