38833 Terri Ln · Oakhurst, CA 93644

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · Other · 68 Days on market

Built 1967 1.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on a desirable 1.3-acre corner lot off Terry Lane and Road 426, this unique property offers two manufactured homes with plenty of potential. The primary residence is a double-wide home featuring three bedrooms and two bathrooms, complemented by an extra-large septic system designed to accommodate both dwellings. In addition, the property includes a secondary single-wide unit, ideal for extended family, guests, or possible rental income. Both homes were built prior to 1976 and are in fair condition, offering an excellent opportunity for a buyer willing to invest in maintenance and updates to bring out their full value. With its versatile layout, spacious acreage, and dual-living set

Key facts

• 1.3 acre lot
• Built 1967
• Listed 67 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property has two total units; Two ADUs (accessory dwelling units) noted
• HOA & community: Community features include biking and foothills

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Security: Accessible doors (swing-in); Accessible parking
• Utilities: Well water; Sewer connected / sewer on bond; Electricity available / on property
• Home design: Manufactured house; Single-story; Entry at level 1; Accessory dwelling units present (2 ADUs)
• Construction: Metal roof; Pier jacks foundation; Guest house structure present; Property listed in fixer condition
• Exterior features: Awning; Deck patio; Guest house on the property; Fenced yard (good condition); Corner lot; Landscaped grounds; Irregular lot shape; Horse property; Up slope from street; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Family-style kitchen; Water heater unit (appliance listed)
• Bedrooms: Main floor bedroom(s)
• Flooring: Laminated flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms with bathtub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: One-level living; Main level bedrooms and bathrooms; Living room with fireplace; All bedrooms on the main floor; Family kitchen / eating area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $57 ($684/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.4% in Oakhurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#911 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Zoned schools: Oakhurst Elementary (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #917 of 1,571 statewide, top 60%, 352 students, 64% FRL); Oak Creek Intermediate (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #183 of 498 statewide, top 38%, 204 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,290 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.14%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-31,181
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-22,360
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93644

• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,953 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,225/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,881

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $206	-5% $131	+0% $57	+5% $-17	+10% $-92
Rent	-10% $-97	-5% $-20	+0% $57	+5% $134	+10% $211
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $112	base $57	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-55

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $215,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $215,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $215,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-17
   price $215,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $225,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $225,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 48 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 47 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 46 DOM
19. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 45 DOM
20. 2026-04-15
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 53 unhealthy d/yr today · 63 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$3,225
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,875
• − Management: −$1,875
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$2,913
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$699
• After-tax cash flow: $1,383/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Oakhurst

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #24074

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment C Housing A Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakhurst, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,490

Population outlook (Madera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,915 people
• By 2030: 159,604 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 163,454 · +3.5%
• By 2050: 167,071 · +5.8%
• By 2075: 171,182 · +8.4%
• By 2100: 162,781 · +3.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madera

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.4% · R 59.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.01%
• Current HPI: 259.017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $225,000 CRMLS