3891 Cross Creek Dr

Elm Creek, TX 78852

$179,000F

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,264/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax + insurance: −$210
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-150/mo
• Annual: $-1,799/yr
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.59%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $50,120

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (29.4% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $126k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#804 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Eagle Pass ISD (town): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #774 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Pass J H (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,051 students, 74% FRL); Eagle Pass H S (math 23% / reading 46%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 2,369 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 32% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 22% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Eagle Pass ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 461 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Maverick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Maverick County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.