3891 Cross Creek Dr · Elm Creek, TX 78852

$179,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2020 0.28 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful and well-maintained 2020 double-wide manufactured home offering the perfect combination of comfort, space, and additional income potential. The main home features 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with an open-concept layout designed for modern living. The kitchen comes fully equipped with all appliances included, making this property move-in ready. Located behind the main residence is a separate tiny home situated on its own electric meter, offering excellent flexibility for extended family, guests, or rental income opportunities. The tiny home features 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and its own HVAC system for year-round comfort and privacy. This unique property provides p

Key facts

• Own electric meter
• Separate tiny home
• Hvac system

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• SEPARATE TINY HOME
• OWN ELECTRIC METER
• HVAC SYSTEM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present with annual fees

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Exterior features: Lot of approximately 12,075 square feet

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating system specified
• Interior features: Single-level living (one story)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (14.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#804 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Eagle Pass ISD (town): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #774 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Pass J H (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,051 students, 74% FRL); Eagle Pass H S (math 23% / reading 46%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 2,369 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 32% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 22% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Eagle Pass ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 461 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Maverick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maverick County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,393 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.59%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-38,592
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-46,047
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78852

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Active inventory: 461
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,264 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,622/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,454

Max offer price $152,510

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-49	-5% $-99	+0% $-150	+5% $-201	+10% $-251
Rent	-10% $-250	-5% $-200	+0% $-150	+5% $-100	+10% $-50
Rate	-1.0pp $-60	-0.5pp $-104	base $-150	+0.5pp $-196	+1.0pp $-244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $179,000 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $179,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $179,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on marketlisting id $179,000 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $179,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    listed $179,000 Active
18. 2025-10-04
    status Active
19. 2025-07-17
    listed $190,000 Active
20. 2025-02-03
    historical $700
21. 2025-01-03
    soldstatus
22. 2025-01-02
    listed $700
23. 2018-03-16
    soldstatus
24. 2015-03-04
    soldstatus
25. 2008-03-24
    soldstatus
26. 2002-07-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,622 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,276 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,654/yr (+$138/mo · 101.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,622
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,213
• − Management: −$1,213
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$5,011
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,203
• After-tax cash flow: $-597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eagle Pass ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817730
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -41.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $32,967
• Composite: 17.48/100
• National rank: #9057
• State rank: #774 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elm Creek

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #804
• US rank: #14660

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A- Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elm Creek, TX
• County: Maverick County · 57,434 people
• Metro: Eagle Pass, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,434
• Household income: $49,954
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 822.0

Population outlook (Maverick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,919 people
• By 2030: 65,440 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 70,229 · +11.6%
• By 2050: 74,218 · +18.0%
• By 2075: 80,765 · +28.4%
• By 2100: 76,268 · +21.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 95% Two or more races 53% White 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 11% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Maverick

• 2024 margin: R (+18.5) · D 40.5% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -75.5pp toward R · 2008: 57.0pp · 2024: -18.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.5 2020: D+9.4 2016: D+55.8 2012: D+58.0 2008: D+57.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.62%
• Current HPI: 172.9298
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Eagle Pass, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $179,000 EPBOR
• 2025-10-04 Relisted — EPBOR
• 2025-07-17 Listed $190,000 EPBOR
• 2025-02-03 Rental Removed $700 EPBOR
• 2025-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-01-02 Listed for Rent $700 EPBOR
• 2018-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-03-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+16.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,622 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.