2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,080 sqft ·
Built 1968
· Manufactured
· Active
· 339 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,893/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$629
Tax + insurance
−$258
HOA
−$119
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$398
Net cashflow
$490/mo
Annual
$5,875/yr
Cap rate
11.85%
Cash-on-cash
19.86%
DSCR
1.88
1% rule
1.58%
Cash to close
$33,600
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $490 ($6k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
It's been on market 339 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Lely Elementary School (math 45% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 499 students, 62% FRL); East Naples Middle School (math 56% / reading 44%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 854 students, 63% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Collier average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 339 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-BARA590ZVVYE56
· Data 18 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29