9433 Gulf Beach Hwy

Pensacola Station, FL 32507

$185,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 728 sqft · Built 2023 · Manufactured · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,480/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$151
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $48/mo
• Annual: $577/yr
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.11%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($577/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (20.0% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $148k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pleasant Grove Elementary School (math 60% / reading 53%, grade C+, #816 of 2,144 statewide, top 39%, 534 students, 66% FRL); Jim C. Bailey Middle School (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #384 of 571 statewide, top 68%, 1,159 students, 57% FRL); Escambia High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,655 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 701 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.1% in Pensacola Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.