9433 Gulf Beach Hwy · Pensacola Station, FL 32507

$185,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2023 10,018 sqft lot $254/sqft · 113% above area ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath modular home offering 840 SF of comfortable living space in a convenient Pensacola location off Gulf Beach Highway. Situated right next to a similar neighboring property, this home backs up to vacant land, providing a peaceful setting with added privacy and natural views. Inside, you’ll find a functional floor plan with an open living area, abundant natural light, and a layout designed for comfortable everyday living. The spacious primary suite includes a private bath, while the second bedroom and bath provide flexibility for guests, roommates, or a home office. Located just minutes from Big Lagoon, Perdido Key beaches, boat launches, shopping, and di

Key facts

• Modular home
• Natural views
• Private bath

Tags

• MODULAR HOME
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• NATURAL VIEWS
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• PRIVATE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot roughly 0.23 acre (approx. 171 x 60); Directions: From Pensacola on 292, turn left onto Gulf Beach Highway; travel about half a mile and property will be on the left
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with open parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Mobile/Manufactured or Modular home; Single-story; Resale property
• Construction: Off-grade foundation
• Exterior features: Front porch; Metal roof; Paved public road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor (approximately 10' x 12'); Additional bedroom on the first floor (approximately 10' x 12')
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living/dining combination; Vinyl and carpet flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($577/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.1% in Pensacola Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pleasant Grove Elementary School (math 60% / reading 53%, grade C+, #816 of 2,144 statewide, top 39%, 534 students, 66% FRL); Jim C. Bailey Middle School (math 38% / reading 39%, grade F, #384 of 571 statewide, top 68%, 1,159 students, 57% FRL); Escambia High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #529 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,655 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 701 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $147,975 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.11%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $100,000
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: 90.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-29,594
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-32,440
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32507

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 701
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,480 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $884/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,419

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $100	+0% $48	+5% $-4	+10% $-57
Rent	-10% $-69	-5% $-10	+0% $48	+5% $107	+10% $165
Rate	-1.0pp $141	-0.5pp $95	base $48	+0.5pp $0	+1.0pp $-49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9775 N Loop Rd #1 Pensacola, FL	1.0	1.0	600	$1,200	$2.00	25d	1	0.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 693-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on marketlisting id $185,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-04-01
   price $190,000 1922-char remark
4. 2026-02-23
   listed $295,000 Active 1922-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $884 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,536 · $128/mo
• Expected delta: +$651/yr (+$54/mo · 73.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,757
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$884
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,421
• − Management: −$1,421
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$2,638
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$633
• After-tax cash flow: $1,210/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pensacola Station

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• City population: 4,993
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,226
• Household income: $73,540
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.23%
• Current HPI: 548.03
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-37.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $185,000 PARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $190,000 PARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $295,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+1086.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $884 · +1086.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.