12648 Ironbow Way

Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$580,347D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,879 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 128 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,381/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,043
• Tax + insurance: −$967
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$710
• Net cashflow: $-1,340/mo
• Annual: $-16,078/yr
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.89%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $162,497

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $580k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (33.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (41.7% below list).
• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($511k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $338k (41.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $62k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: commute C-, crime D, cost of living F.
• Folsom-Cordova Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #365 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Navigator Elementary (400 students, 50% FRL); W. E. Mitchell Middle (805 students, 62% FRL); Cordova High (1,931 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 29% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$100k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.