12648 Ironbow Way · Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$580,347

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,879 sqft · Land · 128 Days on market

Built 2026 $309/sqft · 9% below area Est $637k · 9% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story home boasts a private owner's suite on the first floor, offering a restful retreat comprised of a spacious bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for seamless everyday living. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile and inviting loft.

Key facts

• Versatile loft
• Open-concept layout
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• VERSATILE LOFT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $580k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (33.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (41.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $338k (41.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: commute C-, crime D, cost of living F.
• Folsom-Cordova Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #365 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Navigator Elementary (400 students, 50% FRL); W. E. Mitchell Middle (805 students, 62% FRL); Cordova High (1,931 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 29% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $62k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $58k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$100k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($511k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $338,074 (41.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.89%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $637,454
• List price: $580,347
• Delta: -8.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $227,686
• Equity at exit: $522,823

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $731,646
• Equity at exit: $1,127,487

Cash invested: $162,497 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95742

• Home prices YoY: 28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,381 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,043
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$725 /mo · $8,705/yr
• Insurance: −$242
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$710
• Net cashflow: $-1,340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,077

Max offer price $386,467

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-939	-5% $-1,139	+0% $-1,340	+5% $-1,540	+10% $-1,741
Rent	-10% $-1,607	-5% $-1,473	+0% $-1,340	+5% $-1,206	+10% $-1,073
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,048	-0.5pp $-1,192	base $-1,340	+0.5pp $-1,490	+1.0pp $-1,643

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $145,087
• Closing costs: $17,410
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12645 Hereford Ave Unit NA Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2018	$3,250	$1.61	23d	1	0.08mi
12636 Hereford Ave Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1941	$2,995	$1.54	0d	1	0.11mi
3628 Vestland Way Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.0	2179	$3,000	$1.38	12d	1	0.18mi
3669 Vestland Ct Rancho Cordova, CA	5.0	3.0	2261	$3,200	$1.42	5d	1	0.25mi
3686 Rockdale Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.0	1880	$2,795	$1.49	9d	1	0.56mi
12579 Bellmead Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1603	$2,650	$1.65	5d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $580,347 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $580,347 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $580,347 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $580,347 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $580,347 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $580,347 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $580,347 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $580,347 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $580,347 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $580,347 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $580,347 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $580,347 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $580,347 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $580,347 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $580,347 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $580,347 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    This new two-story home boasts a private owner's suite on the first floor, offering a restful retreat comprised of a spacious bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for seamless everyday living. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile and inviting loft.

17. 2026-05-06
    price $590,347 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    This new two-story home boasts a private owner's suite on the first floor, offering a restful retreat comprised of a spacious bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for seamless everyday living. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile and inviting loft.

18. 2026-05-06
    price $588,347 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    This new two-story home boasts a private owner's suite on the first floor, offering a restful retreat comprised of a spacious bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for seamless everyday living. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile and inviting loft.

19. 2026-05-06
    price $590,347 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    This new two-story home boasts a private owner's suite on the first floor, offering a restful retreat comprised of a spacious bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for seamless everyday living. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile and inviting loft.

20. 2026-04-28
    price $588,347 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    This new two-story home boasts a private owner's suite on the first floor, offering a restful retreat comprised of a spacious bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for seamless everyday living. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile and inviting loft.

21. 2026-04-18
    price $592,347 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    This new two-story home boasts a private owner's suite on the first floor, offering a restful retreat comprised of a spacious bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for seamless everyday living. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile and inviting loft.

22. 2026-04-11
    price $610,347 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    This new two-story home boasts a private owner's suite on the first floor, offering a restful retreat comprised of a spacious bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for seamless everyday living. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile and inviting loft.

23. 2026-03-31
    price $602,347 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    This new two-story home boasts a private owner's suite on the first floor, offering a restful retreat comprised of a spacious bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for seamless everyday living. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile and inviting loft.

24. 2026-03-04
    price $590,297 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    This new two-story home boasts a private owner's suite on the first floor, offering a restful retreat comprised of a spacious bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for seamless everyday living. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile and inviting loft.

25. 2026-02-13
    listed $602,347 Active 366-char remark

    Show marketing remark (366 chars)

    This new two-story home boasts a private owner's suite on the first floor, offering a restful retreat comprised of a spacious bedroom, en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout blends the kitchen, dining room and family room for seamless everyday living. On the second floor, three additional bedrooms surround a versatile and inviting loft.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,569
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,508
• − Property taxes: −$8,705
• − Insurance: −$2,902
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,246
• − Management: −$3,246
• − Depreciation: −$16,883
• Taxable loss: −$26,920
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,461
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Folsom-Cordova Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613890
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -38.00%
• Median HH income: $75,408
• Composite: 24.49/100
• National rank: #7656
• State rank: #365 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,768
• Household income: $155,855
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.05%
• Current HPI: 236.1388
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $580,347 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $590,347 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $588,347 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $590,347 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $588,347 Zillow
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $592,347 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $610,347 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $602,347 Zillow
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $590,297 Zillow
• 2026-02-13 Listed $602,347 Zillow