222 E 38th St

Buena Vista, VA 24416

$85,000F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,129/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$934
• Tax + insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $-265/mo
• Annual: $-3,179/yr
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.78%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $49,851

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-265 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#217 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Buena Vista City Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #61 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: F.W. Kling Jr. Elementary (249 students, 86% FRL); Parry Mccluer Middle (math 72% / reading 77%, grade A, #50 of 342 statewide, top 16%, 119 students, 87% FRL); Parry Mccluer High (math 37% / reading 67%, grade D+, #295 of 319 statewide, top 93%, 330 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 44% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 18 units permitted in Buena Vista city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Buena Vista County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $65k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Buena Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.