222 E 38th St · Buena Vista, VA 24416

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 952 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1979 6,098 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits in Buena Vista Virginia. This property is being sold as-is and ready for your vision. Whether you're an investor, flipper, or buyer looking to build equity, this fixer-upper offers solid potential in a convenient location. Bring your tools and imagination-this could be your next great project!

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1979
• Listed 27 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; New construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Porch; 50ft x 100ft lot

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Electric heating; Ceiling fan(s); Central cooling not present
• Interior features: Electric water heater; Crawl space basement

🏗️ New construction. The $85,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $177,966.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-264 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.4% in Buena Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#217 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Buena Vista City Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #61 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: F.W. Kling Jr. Elementary (249 students, 86% FRL); Parry Mccluer Middle (math 72% / reading 77%, grade A, #50 of 342 statewide, top 16%, 119 students, 87% FRL); Parry Mccluer High (math 37% / reading 67%, grade D+, #295 of 319 statewide, top 93%, 330 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 44% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 18 units permitted in Buena Vista city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buena Vista County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,725 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,966
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -52.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
262 E 35th St	0.19mi	3/1.0	960 (+1%)	11mo	$75,000	$78	80
132 W 37th St	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+6%)	6mo	$169,000	$168	76
230 E 39th St	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	910 (-4%)	20mo	$158,000	$174	68
550 Reids Hill Rd	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (+1%)	11mo	$120,000	$125	68
255 Longhollow Rd	0.60mi	3/1.0	960 (+1%)	15mo	$180,000	$188	58
183 E 38th St	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,083 (+14%)	20mo	$145,000	$134	58
247 E 33rd St	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+11%)	21mo	$174,000	$165	51
145 Long Hollow Road Rd	0.71mi	3/1.0	960 (+1%)	21mo	$175,000	$182	48
216 E 30th St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	904 (-5%)	20mo	$95,000	$105	47
154 W 31st St	0.49mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+13%)	15mo	$159,000	$147	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-45,710
• Equity at exit: $26,535

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-61,607
• Equity at exit: $15,387

Cash invested: $49,831 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24416

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,129 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $986/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $-264

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,463

Max offer price $131,249

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-164	-5% $-214	+0% $-264	+5% $-315	+10% $-365
Rent	-10% $-354	-5% $-309	+0% $-264	+5% $-220	+10% $-175
Rate	-1.0pp $-175	-0.5pp $-219	base $-264	+0.5pp $-311	+1.0pp $-357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,492
• Closing costs: $5,339
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
E 40th St Buena Vista, VA	2.0	2.0	784	$1,115	$1.42	15d	3	0.12mi
2222 Cedar Ave Buena Vista, VA	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	45d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-23
   listed $85,000 Active 313-char remark
2. 2000-05-31
   soldstatus $64,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $986 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $986 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,543
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,969
• − Property taxes: −$986
• − Insurance: −$1,687
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,083
• − Management: −$1,083
• − Depreciation: −$5,177
• Taxable loss: −$6,443
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,546
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buena Vista City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100560
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,243
• Composite: 50.44/100
• National rank: #1866
• State rank: #61 of 131 in VA

Livability — Buena Vista

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #217
• US rank: #7146

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buena Vista, VA
• County: Buena Vista City · 9,082 people
• City population: 9,082
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 9,082
• Household income: $54,882
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 239.0

Population outlook (Buena Vista County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,454 people
• By 2030: 6,395 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 6,271 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 6,166 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 6,287 · -2.6%
• By 2100: 6,282 · -2.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Buena Vista

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.5) · D 26.9% · R 71.3% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.3pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -44.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.5 2020: R+37.4 2016: R+30.9 2012: R+25.5 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.06%
• Current HPI: 143.115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+31.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — RHR
• 2026-04-23 Listed $85,000 RHR
• 2000-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $64,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $986 · +65.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.