29 Ava Rd

Harrison, IL 62966

$150,000F

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 209 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $971/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $-211/mo
• Annual: $-2,529/yr
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.02%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (35.2% below list).
• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,283 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Murphysboro CUSD 186 (town): math 9% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #585 of 620 in IL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.