29 Ava Rd · Harrison, IL 62966

$150,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Manufactured public records · 209 Days on market

Built 1999 1.30 ac lot $67/sqft · 50% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Schools +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

32x80 doublewide. 5 bed 2 bath. Has office space. Full covered porch across the length of front of house. 2.5 car attached garage and large deck off back. New roof in 2018. Large driveway, convenient location. Owner financing available with 20% down at current bank interest rate.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Large driveway
• Full covered porch

Tags

• FULL COVERED PORCH
• LARGE DECK
• NEW ROOF
• LARGE DRIVEWAY
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-211 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $113k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (35.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,283 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Murphysboro CUSD 186 (town): math 9% / reading 10% proficiency, ranked #585 of 620 in IL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 209 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,125 (35.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 209 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.02%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,382
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -53.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-37,750
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-50,241
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62966

• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $971 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,547/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $-211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,238

Max offer price $112,773

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 209 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 208 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 207 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 206 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 205 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 203 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 202 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $150,000 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 194 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 192 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 191 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 190 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 189 DOM
17. 2025-11-22
    listed $150,000 Active 281-char remark

    Show marketing remark (281 chars)

    32x80 doublewide. 5 bed 2 bath. Has office space. Full covered porch across the length of front of house. 2.5 car attached garage and large deck off back. New roof in 2018. Large driveway, convenient location. Owner financing available with 20% down at current bank interest rate.

18. 2021-08-06
    historical
19. 2008-01-15
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,547 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,476 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$929/yr (+$77/mo · 60.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,655
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,547
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$932
• − Management: −$932
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$5,273
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,265
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Murphysboro CUSD 186
• NCES district ID: 1727610
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 10% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,963
• Composite: 7.97/100
• National rank: #9925
• State rank: #585 of 620 in IL

Livability — Harrison

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1283
• US rank: #24251

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,995

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,093 people
• By 2030: 59,628 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 59,495 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 58,811 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 57,683 · -2.4%
• By 2100: 55,337 · -6.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 47.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.8pp · 2024: 3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.5 2020: D+1.3 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+10.3 2008: D+21.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.39%
• Current HPI: 95.9393
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-22 Listed $150,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-15 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+29.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,547 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.